Related papers: Defaultable Bonds via HKA
We introduce a new volatility model for option pricing that combines Markov switching with the Realized GARCH framework. This leads to a novel pricing kernel with a state-dependent variance risk premium and a pricing formula for European…
Given a nonparametric Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with two states, the question of constructing efficient multiple testing procedures is considered, treating one of the states as an unknown null hypothesis. A procedure is introduced, based on…
We consider a market model where there are two levels of information. The public information generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a random time. This random time can…
As markets have digitized, the number of tradable products has skyrocketed. Algorithmically constructed portfolios of these assets now dominate public and private markets, resulting in a combinatorial explosion of tradable assets. In this…
Continuous time financial market models are often motivated as scaling limits of discrete time models. The objective of this paper is to establish such a connection for a robust framework. More specifically, we consider discrete time models…
The Marketron model, introduced by [Halperin, Itkin, 2025], describes price formation in inelastic markets as the nonlinear diffusion of a quasiparticle (the marketron) in a multidimensional space comprising the log-price $x$, a memory…
We introduce the hybrid risk process, constructed via a time-change transformation applied to the solution of a hybrid stochastic differential equation. The framework covers several modern ruin settings, incorporating features like…
Predicting potential credit default accounts in advance is challenging. Traditional statistical techniques typically cannot handle large amounts of data and the dynamic nature of fraud and humans. To tackle this problem, recent research has…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
There are many studies on development of models for analyzing some derivatives such as credit default swaps .
We consider the problem of hedging a European interest rate contingent claim with a portfolio of zero-coupon bonds and show that an HJM type Markovian model driven by an infinite number of sources of randomness does not have some of the…
We construct the term structure of the (forward-looking, US market) equity risk premium from SPX option chains. The method is "model-light". Risk-neutral probability densities are estimated by fitting $N$-component Gaussian mixture models…
Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick…
We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest…
We derive deterministic criteria for the existence and non-existence of equivalent (local) martingale measures for financial markets driven by multi-dimensional time-inhomogeneous diffusions. Our conditions can be used to construct…
Liberalized electricity markets often include resource adequacy mechanisms that require consumers to contract with generation resources well in advance of real-time operations. While administratively defined mechanisms have most commonly…
The potential approach is a general and simple method for modelling interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and in principle other types of financial assets. This paper takes data on some liquid interest rate derivatives, and fits potential…
Networked-guarantee loans may cause the systemic risk related concern of the government and banks in China. The prediction of default of enterprise loans is a typical extremely imbalanced prediction problem, and the networked-guarantee make…
In this paper, I consider a simple heterogeneous agents model of a production economy with uncertain climate change and examine constrained efficient carbon taxation. If there are frictionless, complete financial markets, the simple model…
In this article we propose a multi-zonal integrated energy-reserve market model. We assume that bidders may submit their demand and supply bids on the one hand in the form of conventional hourly step bids and block bids, which are cleared…