Related papers: Dansgaard-Oeschger events: tipping points in the c…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…
Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…
Spatial diffusion of particles in periodic potential models has provided a good framework for studying the role of chaos in global properties of classical systems. Here a bidimensional "soft" billiard, classically modeled from an optical…
In diverse physical systems stable oscillatory solutions devolve into more complicated dynamical behaviour through border-collision bifurcations. Mathematically these occur when a stable fixed point of a piecewise-smooth map collides with a…
A prevailing viewpoint in palaeoclimate science is that a single palaeoclimate record contains insufficient information to discriminate between most competing explanatory models. Results we present here suggest the contrary. Using SMC^2…
In this paper we perform a careful analysis of the forced PP04 model for climate change, in particular the behaviour of the ice-ages. This system models the transition from a glacial to an inter-glacial state through a sudden release of…
Sudden transitions in the state of a system are often undesirable in natural and human-made systems. Such transitions under fast variation of system parameters are called rate-induced tipping. We experimentally demonstrate rate-induced…
We report the study of sudden transitions or tipping in a collection of systems induced due to multiplexing with another network of systems. The emergent dynamics of oscillators on one layer can undergo a sudden transition to steady state…
A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…
This article is concerned with the internal dynamics of a conceptual model proposed by Maasch and Saltzman [J. Geophys. Res., 95, D2 (1990) 1955-1963] to explain central features of the glacial cycles observed in the climate record of the…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that…
Transitions between multiple stable states of nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and beyond. Two types of behaviors are usually seen as mutually exclusive: unpredictable noise-induced transitions and predictable…
The study of Planktonic Foraminifera abundances permits to obtain climatic curves on the basis of percentage ratio between tropical and temperate/polar forms. Climatic changes were controlled by several phenomena as: (i) Milankovitch's…
A wide variety of physical systems ranging from the firing of neurons to eutrophication of lakes to the presence of Arctic summer sea ice exhibit a phenomenon known as tipping. In mathematical models, tipping can be caused by bifurcations,…