Related papers: Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to c…

Predicting the future behaviour of complex systems exhibiting critical-like dynamics is often considered to be an intrinsically hard task. Here, we study the predictability of the depinning dynamics of elastic interfaces in random media…

We consider the stochastic patterns of a system of communicating, or coupled, self-propelled particles in the presence of noise and communication time delay. For sufficiently large environmental noise, there exists a transition between a…

Tipping is a phenomenon in multistable systems where small changes in inputs cause huge changes in outputs. When the parameter varies within a certain time scale, the rate will affect the tipping behaviors. These behaviors are undesirable…

Noise-induced transitions between metastable fixed points in systems evolving on multiple time scales are analyzed in situations where the time scale separation gives rise to a slow manifold with bifurcation. This analysis is performed…

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate…

Friction is ubiquitous in daily life, from nanoscale machines to large engineering components. By probing the intricate interplay between system parameters and frictional behavior, scientists seek to unveil the underlying mechanisms that…

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

The process of pattern formation for a multi-species model anchored on a time varying network is studied. A non homogeneous perturbation superposed to an homogeneous stable fixed point can amplify, as follows a novel mechanism of…

We study fully three-dimensional droplets that slide down an incline by employing a thin-film equation that accounts for capillarity, wettability, and a lateral driving force in small-gradient (or long-wave) approximation. In particular, we…

Earth system forecasting has traditionally relied on complex physical models that are computationally expensive and require significant domain expertise. In the past decade, the unprecedented increase in spatiotemporal Earth observation…

Tree-grass coexistence is a defining feature of savanna ecosystems, which play an important role in supporting biodiversity and human populations worldwide. While recent advances have clarified many of the underlying processes, how these…

A feature common to many models of vegetation pattern formation in semi-arid ecosystems is a sequence of qualitatively different patterned states, "gaps -> labyrinth -> spots", that occurs as a parameter representing precipitation…

We present a phenomenological description of the critical slowing down associated with period-doubling bifurcations in discrete dynamical systems. Starting from a local Taylor expansion around the fixed point and the bifurcation parameter,…

We study a two-dimensional low-dissipation dynamical system with a control parameter that is swept linearly in time across a transcritical bifurcation. We investigate the relaxation time of a perturbation applied to a variable of the system…

In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to…

Aeroelastic flutter represents a critical nonlinear instability arising from the coupling between structural elasticity and unsteady aerodynamics. In deterministic settings, flutter onset is associated with bifurcations of invariant sets…

Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's…

Critical transitions describe sudden changes in the state of an ecosystem. In classical bifurcation theory, such transitions occur when the value of a parameter exceeds a threshold (``bifurcation") value. More recently, critical transitions…

The slow passage through a Hopf bifurcation leads to the delayed appearance of large amplitude oscillations. We construct a smooth scalar feedback control which suppresses the delay and causes the system to follow a stable equilibrium…

A habitat that is moving due to environmental change may result in tipping to extinction if the rate at which it moves is too great. We use a scalar reaction-diffusion equation with a non-autonomous reaction term, representing a spatially…