Related papers: Tail estimates for stochastic fixed point equation…
We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…
Starting from one-point tail bounds, we establish an upper tail large deviation principle for the directed landscape at the metric level. Metrics of finite rate are in one-to-one correspondence with measures supported on a set of countably…
Large deviation estimates for the following linear parabolic equation are studied: \[ \frac{\partial u}{\partial t}=\tr\Big(a(x)D^2u\Big) + b(x)\cdot D u + \int_{\R^N} \Big\{(u(x+y)-u(x)-(D u(x)\cdot y)\ind{|y|<1}(y)\Big\}\d\mu(y), \] where…
In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…
We investigate the application of the Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm for the estimation of tail probabilities of solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations evaluated at a given time, and of associated temporal averages. We…
We derive in this preprint the moment and exponential tail estimates, sufficient conditions for the Non-Central Limit Theorem (NCLT) in the ordinary one-dimensional space as well as in the space of continuous functions for the properly…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic system described by a differential equation admitting a spatially varying random coefficient. The differential equation has been employed to model various static physics systems such as elastic…
The note is devoted to estimates for convolutions appearing in some class of stochastic Volterra equations. Two maximal inequalities and exponential tail estimate are proved by the fractional method of infinite dimensional stochastic…
This paper investigates tail asymptotics of stationary distributions and quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs) of continuous-time Markov chains on subsets of the non-negative integers. Based on the so-called flux-balance equation, we…
We study the almost surely finite random variable $S$ defined by the distributional fixed-point equation \[ S \stackrel{d}{=} 1 + \max\{US', (1-U)S''\}, \qquad U \sim \mathrm{Unif}(0,1), \] where $S'$ and $S''$ are independent copies of…
We consider the problem of fitting variational posterior approximations using stochastic optimization methods. The performance of these approximations depends on (1) how well the variational family matches the true posterior…
We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…
We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…
The sums and maxima of weighted non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraints are that there exists a unique…
We study the so-called two-time-scale stochastic approximation, a simulation-based approach for finding the roots of two coupled nonlinear operators. Our focus is to characterize its finite-time performance in a Markov setting, which often…
An asymptotic model for extreme behavior of certain Markov chains is the "tail chain". Generally taking the form of a multiplicative random walk, it is useful in deriving extremal characteristics such as point process limits. We place this…
Using terminologies of information geometry, we derive upper and lower bounds of the tail probability of the sample mean. Employing these bounds, we obtain upper and lower bounds of the minimum error probability of the 2nd kind of error…
Randomized trace estimation is a popular and well studied technique that approximates the trace of a large-scale matrix $B$ by computing the average of $x^T Bx$ for many samples of a random vector $X$. Often, $B$ is symmetric positive…
Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…