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Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

In this paper, we derive a valid Edgeworth expansions for the Bessel corrected empirical variance when data are generated by a strongly mixing process whose distribution can be arbitrarily. The constraint of strongly mixing process makes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-19 Eric Benhamou

Starting with Hoare Logic over 50 years ago, numerous program logics have been devised to reason about the diverse programs encountered in the real world. This includes reasoning about computational effects, particularly those effects that…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Noam Zilberstein

In branching process theory, linear-fractional distributions are commonly used to model individual reproduction, especially when the goal is to obtain more explicit formulas than those derived under general model assumptions. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Gerold Alsmeyer , Viet Hung Hoang

A series of lecture notes on the elementary theory of algebraic numbers, using only knowledge of a first-semester graduate course in algebra (primarily groups and rings). No prerequisite knowledge of fields is required. Based primarily on…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-28 Steve Wright

This paper reviews a paper from 1906 by J. Henri Poincar\'e on statistical mechanics with a background in his earlier work and notable connections to J. Willard Gibbs. Poincar\'e's paper presents important ideas that are still relevant for…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2025-05-20 Bruce D. Popp

Dependent nonparametric processes extend distributions over measures, such as the Dirichlet process and the beta process, to give distributions over collections of measures, typically indexed by values in some covariate space. Such models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 Nicholas J. Foti , Sinead Williamson

We study various classes of random processes defined on the regular tree $T_d$ that are invariant under the automorphism group of $T_d$. Most important ones are factor of i.i.d. processes (randomized local algorithms), branching Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-28 Ágnes Backhausz , Balázs Szegedy

Since their appearance in the 1950s, computational models capable of performing probabilistic choices have received wide attention and are nowadays pervasive in almost every areas of computer science. Their development was also inextricably…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Melissa Antonelli , Ugo Dal Lago , Paolo Pistone

In this paper, we introduce a new class of processes which are diffusions with jumps driven by a multivariate nonlinear Hawkes process. Our goal is to study their long-time behavior. In the case of exponential memory kernels for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-09 Charlotte Dion , Sarah Lemler , Eva Löcherbach

We develop a new methodology for the fluctuation theory of continuous-time skip-free Markov chains, extending the recent work of Choi and Patie [5] for discrete-time skip-free Markov chains. As the main application we use it to derive a…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-31 R. Loeffen , P. Patie , J. Wang

These notes are based on the lectures that I gave (virtually) at the Bruneck Summer School in 2021 on first-passage processes and some applications of the basic theory. I begin by defining what is a first-passage process and presenting the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-14 S. Redner

It has been conjectured since the work of Lalley and Sellke (1987) that the branching Brownian motion seen from its tip (e.g. from its rightmost particle) converges to an invariant point process. Very recently, it emerged that this can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-01 E. Aïdékon , J. Berestycki , É. Brunet , Z. Shi

This is a typeset version of Alan Turing's declassified Second World War paper \textit{Paper on Statistics of Repetitions}. See the companion paper, \textit{The Applications of Probability to Cryptography}, also available from arXiv at…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2015-05-27 Ian Taylor

Branching processes model the evolution of populations of agents that randomly generate offsprings. These processes, more patently Galton-Watson processes, are widely used to model biological, social, cognitive, and technological phenomena,…

Applications · Statistics 2013-02-26 Fabricio Murai , Bruno Ribeiro , Don Towsley , Krista Gile

We present recent results on Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs), involved in biological modeling. PDMPs, first introduced in the probabilistic literature by Davis (1984), are a very general class of Markov processes and are…

It is well known that, as $n$ tends to infinity, the probability of satisfiability for a random 2-SAT formula on $n$ variables, where each clause occurs independently with probability $\alpha/2n$, exhibits a sharp threshold at $\alpha=1$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-05-20 Elchanan Mossel , Arnab Sen

Oscillatory critical amplitudes have been repeatedly observed in hierarchical models and, in the cases that have been taken into consideration, these oscillations are so small to be hardly detectable. Hierarchical models are tightly related…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-05 Ovidiu Costin , Giambattista Giacomin

Integer-valued trawl processes are a class of serially correlated, stationary and infinitely divisible processes that Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen has been working on in recent years. In this Chapter, we provide the first analysis of likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Neil Shephard , Justin J. Yang

This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…

Geophysics · Physics 2014-08-26 Didier Sornette , Ivan Osorio
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