Related papers: Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, an…
Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means that…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real…
Detailed analysis of the log-periodic structures as precursors of the financial crashes is presented. The study is mainly based on the German Stock Index (DAX) variation over the 1998 period which includes both, a spectacular boom and a…
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…
We present an analysis of the time behavior of the $S\&P500$ (Standard and Poors) New York stock exchange index before and after the October 1987 market crash and identify precursory patterns as well as aftershock signatures and…
We study the impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market volatility. We jointly analyze three different structural oil market shocks (i.e., aggregate demand, oil supply, and oil-specific demand shocks) and stock market volatility…
We present a novel methodology to quantify the "impact" of and "response" to market shocks. We apply shocks to a group of stocks in a part of the market, and we quantify the effects in terms of average losses on another part of the market…
This paper analyzes nonlinearities in the international transmission of financial shocks originating in the US. To do so, we develop a flexible nonlinear multi-country model. Our framework is capable of producing asymmetries in the…
We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
Financial networks are dynamic. To assess their systemic importance to the world-wide economic network and avert losses we need models that take the time variations of the links and nodes into account. Using the methodology of classical…
We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group model of stock market prices prior to and after…
The model describing market dynamics after a large financial crash is considered in terms of the stochastic differential equation of Ito. Physically, the model presents an overdamped Brownian particle moving in the nonstationary…
We exploit a recent computational framework to model and detect financial crises in stock markets, as well as shock events in cryptocurrency markets, which are characterized by a sudden or severe drop in prices. Our method manages to detect…
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…
The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of…
A brief historical perspective is first given concerning financial crashes, - from the 17th till the 20th century. In modern times, it seems that log periodic oscillations are found before crashes in several financial indices. The same is…
We propose a picture of stock market crashes as critical points in a hierachical system with discrete scaling. The critical exponent is then complex, leading to log-periodic fluctuations in stock market indexes. We present ``experimental''…