Related papers: Distinguishing and integrating aleatoric and epist…

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

The quantification of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in terms of conditional entropy and mutual information, respectively, has recently become quite common in machine learning. While the properties of these measures, which are rooted…

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…

The idea to distinguish and quantify two important types of uncertainty, often referred to as aleatoric and epistemic, has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In this paper, we consider…

Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Input variables in numerical models are often subject to several levels of uncertainty, usually modeled by probability distributions. In the context of uncertainty quantification applied to these models, studying the robustness of output…

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account…

A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge about models has on the predictions we make from them. This question naturally lends itself to a probabilistic formulation, by…

Various strategies for active learning have been proposed in the machine learning literature. In uncertainty sampling, which is among the most popular approaches, the active learner sequentially queries the label of those instances for…

This paper presents a novel numerical method for the hybrid reliability analysis by using the uncertainty theory. Aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty are considered simultaneously in this method. Epistemic uncertainty is…

Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…

We present a general framework for uncertainty quantification that is a mosaic of interconnected models. We define global first and second order structural and correlative sensitivity analyses for random counting measures acting on risk…

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…