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We derive confidence intervals and confidence sequences for causal effects in situations where the back-door or front-door criteria are applicable. Our tightest confidence intervals hold in the standard setting where the training data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Vladimir Vovk , Ruodu Wang

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

Existing sequential generalized estimating equation methodology for longitudinal and group-correlated data focuses on narrow hypotheses concerning treatment efficacy and often makes modeling assumptions that impede the desirable robustness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Nathan T. Provost , Abdus S. Wahed

We link and extend two approaches to estimating time-varying treatment effects on repeated continuous outcomes--time-varying Difference in Differences (DiD; see Roth et al. (2023) and Chaisemartin et al. (2023) for reviews) and Structural…

A standard assumption for causal inference about the joint effects of time-varying treatment is that one has measured sufficient covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-04 Andrew Ying , Wang Miao , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li

We consider statistical inference in factor analysis for ergodic and non-ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations. Factor model based on high frequency time series data has been mainly discussed in the field of high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-04 Shogo Kusano , Masayuki Uchida

A probabilistic model describes a system in its observational state. In many situations, however, we are interested in the system's response under interventions. The class of structural causal models provides a language that allows us to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 Jonas Peters , Stefan Bauer , Niklas Pfister

We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream teacher and then pass samples from the model to their downstream student. It extends the population dynamics…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-02-28 James P. Crutchfield , Sean Whalen

Spatiotemporal data analysis is pivotal across various domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and healthcare. The data collected in real-world scenarios are often incomplete due to device malfunctions and network errors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Yakun Chen , Kaize Shi , Zhangkai Wu , Juan Chen , Xianzhi Wang , Julian McAuley , Guandong Xu , Shui Yu

Over the past two decades, considerable strides have been made in advancing neuroscientific techniques, yet challenges remain in attributing causality to observed associations. This review addresses a fundamental issue in observational…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-04 Eric W. Bridgeford , Brian S. Caffo , Maya B. Mathur , Russell A. Poldrack

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Muye Liu , Jun Xie

We introduce a framework for estimating causal effects of binary and continuous treatments in high dimensions. We show how posterior distributions of treatment and outcome models can be used together with doubly robust estimators. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-06 Joseph Antonelli , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Francesca Dominici

Generative AI has achieved remarkable empirical success, but from the perspective of statistics it often remains opaque: its predictions may be accurate, yet the underlying mechanism is difficult to interpret, analyze, and trust. This book…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-11 Shinto Eguchi

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 J. J. Lok , R. D. Gill , A. W. van der Vaart , J. M. Robins

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…

Many research questions in public health and medicine concern sustained interventions in populations defined by substantive priorities. Existing methods to answer such questions typically require a measured covariate set sufficient to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-30 Audrey Renson , Michael Hudgens , Alexander Keil , Paul Zivich , Allison Aiello

Over the past two decades, several consistent procedures have been designed to infer causal conclusions from observational data. We prove that if the true causal network might be an arbitrary, linear Gaussian network or a discrete Bayes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Kevin T. Kelly , Conor Mayo-Wilson