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The coefficient of determination is well defined for linear models and its extension is long wanted for mixed-effects models. We revisit its extension to define measures for proportions of variation explained by the whole model, fixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-04 Dabao Zhang

In this paper, we study the local constant and the local linear estimators of the conditional density function with right-censored data which exhibit some type of dependence. It is assumed that the observations form a stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-12 Xianzhu Xiong , Meijuan Ou

Let $(X_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a possibly nonstationary sequence such that $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=P_n$ if $i\leq n\theta$ and $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=Q_n$ if $i>n\theta$, where $0<\theta <1$ is the location of the change-point to be estimated. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Samir Ben Hariz , Jonathan J. Wylie , Qiang Zhang

Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-03 Nina Munkholt Jakobsen , Michael Sørensen

Moving from univariate to bivariate jointly dependent long-memory time series introduces a phase parameter $(\gamma)$, at the frequency of principal interest, zero; for short-memory series $\gamma=0$ automatically. The latter case has also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-07 P. M. Robinson

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

This paper addresses important weaknesses in current methodology for the estimation of multivariate extreme event distributions. The estimation of the residual dependence index $\eta \in (0,1]$ is notoriously problematic. We introduce a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-05 Jennifer Israelsson , Emily Black , Claudia Neves , David Walshaw

The article considers semi-supervised multitask learning on a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Using methods from statistical physics, we compute the asymptotic Bayes risk of each task in the regime of large datasets in high dimension, from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-06 Minh-Toan Nguyen , Romain Couillet

Research has shown banks match interest income and expense betas, and thereby obtain net interest income margins which are insensitive to changes in short-term interest rates. The present analysis extends this research in a number of ways.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-10 Matt Brigida

In fitting a mixture of linear regression models, normal assumption is traditionally used to model the error and then regression parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE). This procedure is not valid if the normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-06 Yanyuan Ma , Shaoli Wang , Lin Xu , Weixin Yao

P values or risk ratios from multiple, independent studies, observational or randomized, can be computationally combined to provide an overall assessment of a research question in meta-analysis. There is a need to examine the reliability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-28 S. Stanley Young , Warren B. Kindzierski

The inference procedure for the mean of a stationary time series is usually quite different under various model assumptions because the partial sum process behaves differently depending on whether the time series is short or long-range…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-22 Shuyang Bai , Murad S. Taqqu , Ting Zhang

In this work we show that for every $d < \infty$ and the Ising model defined on $G(n,d/n)$, there exists a $\beta_d > 0$, such that for all $\beta < \beta_d$ with probability going to 1 as $n \to \infty$, the mixing time of the dynamics on…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-29 Elchanan Mossel , Allan Sly

We suppose that performance is a random variable whose expectation is related to training inputs, and we study four performance measures in a statistical model that relates performance to training. Our aim is to carry out a robust…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-07 Phil Scarf , Mansour Shrahili , Naif Alotaibi , Simon Jobson , Louis Passfield

In data science and machine learning, hierarchical parametric models, such as mixture models, are often used. They contain two kinds of variables: observable variables, which represent the parts of the data that can be directly measured,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-20 Keisuke Yamazaki

It is well-known that random-coefficient AR(1) process can have long memory depending on the index $\beta$ of the tail distribution function of the random coefficient, if it is a regularly varying function at unity. We discuss estimation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-23 Remigijus Leipus , Anne Philippe , Vytaute Pilipauskaite , Donatas Surgailis

The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Marcus Hutter

Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Hongling Zhou , Kung-Yee Liang

We propose an algorithm to estimate the common density $s$ of a stationary process $X_1,...,X_n$. We suppose that the process is either $\beta$ or $\tau$-mixing. We provide a model selection procedure based on a generalization of Mallows'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-08 Matthieu Lerasle

Most existing literature on supervised machine learning assumes that the training dataset is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many real-world problems exhibit temporal dependence and strong correlations between the marginal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Nikola Sandrić