Related papers: Fortelling catastrophes?
As climate change intensifies, the urgency for accurate global-scale disaster predictions grows. This research presents a novel multimodal disaster prediction framework, combining weather statistics, satellite imagery, and textual insights.…
We demonstrate that scale-free patterns are observed in a spatially extended stochastic system whose deterministic part undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation. Remarkably, the scale-free patterns appear only at a particular time in relaxation…
In this article, we present a bifurcation and stability analysis on the double-diffusive convection. The main objective is to study 1) the mechanism of the saddle-node bifurcation and hysteresis for the problem, 2) the formation, stability…
A sudden transition to a state of high amplitude limit cycle oscillations is catastrophic in a thermo-fluid system. Conventionally, upon varying the control parameter, a sudden transition is observed as an abrupt jump in the amplitude of…
A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation because of the centre manifold theorem. It is often tacitly…
Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in…
We study the interaction of saddle-node and transcritical bifurcations in a Lotka-Volterra model with a constant term representing harvesting or migration. Because some of the equilibria of the model lie on an invariant coordinate axis,…
We extend the theory of quasipotentials in dynamical systems by calculating, within a broad class of period-doubling maps, an exact potential for the critical fluctuations of pitchfork bifurcations in the weak noise limit. These…
In a physical system, changing parameters such as temperature can induce a phase transition: an abrupt change from one state of matter to another. Analogous phenomena have recently been observed in large language models. Typically, the task…
We consider a dynamical system undergoing a saddle-node bifurcation with an explicitly time dependent parameter~$p(t)$. The combined dynamics can be considered as a dynamical systems where $p$ is a slowly evolving parameter. Here, we…
We investigate the bifurcation phenomena for stochastic systems with multiplicative Gaussian noise, by examining qualitative changes in mean phase portraits. Starting from the Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density function of…
The scaling of the time delay near a "bottleneck" of a generic saddle-node bifurcation is well-known to be given by an inverse square-root law. We extend the analysis to several non-generic cases for smooth vector fields. We proceed to…
We consider noise-driven exit from a domain of attraction in a two-dimensional bistable system lacking detailed balance. Through analog and digital stochastic simulations, we find a theoretically predicted bifurcation of the most probable…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
We investigate a low-dimensional slow-fast model to understand the dynamical origin of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation. A close inspection of the system dynamics using several bifurcation plots reveals that a sudden large expansion of the…
Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…
There exists a variety of physically interesting situations described by continuous maps that are nondifferentiable on some surface in phase space. Such systems exhibit novel types of bifurcations in which multiple coexisting attractors can…
Many natural and technological systems fail to adapt to changing external conditions and move to a different state if the conditions vary too fast. Such "non-adiabatic" processes are ubiquitous, but little understood. We identify these…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
The bifurcation theory of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and its application to deterministic population models, are by now well established. In this article, we begin to develop a complementary theory for diffusion-like…