Related papers: Fortelling catastrophes?
We investigate bifurcation phenomena between slow and fast convergences of synchronization errors arising in the proposed synchronization system consisting of two identical nonlinear dynamical systems linked by a common noisy input only.…
Chemical, physical and ecological systems passing through a saddle-node bifurcation will, momentarily, find themselves balanced at a semi-stable steady state. If perturbed by noise, such systems will escape from the zero-steady state, with…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…
Transitions between multiple stable states of nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and beyond. Two types of behaviors are usually seen as mutually exclusive: unpredictable noise-induced transitions and predictable…
We theoretically study divergent fluctuations of dynamical events at non-ergodic transitions. We first focus on the finding that a non-ergodic transition can be described as a saddle connection bifurcation of an order parameter for a time…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
Bifurcations mark qualitative changes of long-term behavior in dynamical systems and can often signal sudden ("hard") transitions or catastrophic events (divergences). Accurately locating them is critical not just for deeper understanding…
Motivated by a stochastic differential equation describing the dynamics of interfaces, we study the bifurcation behavior of a more general class of such equations. These equations are characterized by a 2-dimensional phase space (describing…
Noise-induced transitions between metastable fixed points in systems evolving on multiple time scales are analyzed in situations where the time scale separation gives rise to a slow manifold with bifurcation. This analysis is performed…
We consider stochastic electro-mechanical dynamics of an overdamped power system in the vicinity of the saddle-node bifurcation associated with the loss of global stability such as voltage collapse or phase angle instability. Fluctuations…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
Concave in measure and d-concave in measure nonautonomous scalar ordinary differential equations given by coercive and time-compactible maps have similar properties to equations satisfying considerably more restrictive hypotheses. This…
We analyze situations where a saddle-node bifurcation occurs on a fractal basin boundary. Specifically, we are interested in what happens when a system parameter is slowly swept in time through the bifurcation. Such situations are known to…
Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation…
The properties of the fluctuations large enough to induce bifurcations at open chemical systems at steady constraints are studied. The fluctuations that come from the diffusion-induced noise are considered. It is a generic for the surface…
We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior…
The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. The…
Critical phenomena in globally coupled excitable elements are studied by focusing on a saddle-node bifurcation at the collective level. Critical exponents that characterize divergent fluctuations of interspike intervals near the bifurcation…