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A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Luc Lehéricy , Augustin Touron

Change point analysis has become an important research topic in many fields of applications. Several research work has been carried out to detect changes and its locations in time series data. In this paper, a nonparametric method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-28 Ramadha D. Piyadi Gamage , Wei Ning

Hierarchical statistical models are widely employed in information science and data engineering. The models consist of two types of variables: observable variables that represent the given data and latent variables for the unobservable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-21 Keisuke Yamazaki

Mechanistic network models specify the mechanisms by which networks grow and change, allowing researchers to investigate complex systems using both simulation and analytical techniques. Unfortunately, it is difficult to write likelihoods…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Jonathan Larson , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

We consider a one dimensional sub-ballistic random walk evolving in a parametric i.i.d. random environment. We study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter based on a single observation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-13 Mikael Falconnet , Dasha Loukianova , Arnaud Gloter

The problem of parameter estimation by the continuous time observations of a deterministic signal in white gaussian noise is considered. The asymptotic properties of the maximul likelihood estimator are described in the asymptotics of small…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-10 Oleg Chernoyarov , Yury Kutoyants , Andrei Trifonov

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

In a finite mixture of location-scale distributions maximum likelihood estimator does not exist because of the unboundedness of the likelihood function when the scale parameter of some mixture component approaches zero. In order to study…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Kentaro Tanaka , Akimichi Takemura

A procedure for asymptotic bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates of generic estimands is developed. The estimator is realized as a plug-in estimator, where the parameter maximizes the penalized likelihood with a penalty function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-26 Masayo Y. Hirose , Shuhei Mano

We extend the constrained maximum likelihood estimation theory for parameters of a completely identified model, proposed by Aitchison and Silvey (1958), to parameters arising from a partially identified model. With a partially identified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-01 Hao Luo , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Gabriela Cohen Freue , Paul Gustafson

Maximum pseudolikelihood (MPL) estimators are useful alternatives to maximum likelihood (ML) estimators when likelihood functions are more difficult to manipulate than their marginal and conditional components. Furthermore, MPL estimators…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-30 Hien D. Nguyen

This paper considers a nonlinear quantile model with change-points. The quantile estimation method, which as a particular case includes median model, is more robust with respect to other traditional methods when model errors contain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-02 Gabriela Ciuperca

This paper deals with the problem of asymptotically optimal detection of changes in regime-switching stochastic models. We need to divide the whole obtained sample of data into several sub-samples with observations belonging to different…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-25 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

When multiple models are considered in regression problems, the model averaging method can be used to weigh and integrate the models. In the present study, we examined how the goodness-of-prediction of the estimator depends on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Ryo Ando , Fumiyasu Komaki

We review recent developments in detecting and estimating multiple change-points in time series models with exogenous and endogenous regressors, panel data models, and factor models. This review differs from others in multiple ways: (1) it…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-31 Otilia Boldea , Alastair R. Hall

Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Lorena Romero-Medrano , Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

We consider a one-dimensional recurrent random walk in random environment (RWRE) when the environment is i.i.d. with a parametric, finitely supported distribution. Based on a single observation of the path, we provide a maximum likelihood…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Francis Comets , Mikael Falconnet , Oleg Loukianov , Dasha Loukianova

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used as an important tool in the data analysis of repeated measures and longitudinal studies. The most common form of LMMs utilize a normal distribution to model the random effects. Such assumptions can often…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-16 Hien D. Nguyen , Geoffrey J. McLachlan

The parametric estimators applied by rolling are commonly used in the analysis of time series with nonlinear features, such as structural change due to time varying parameters and local trends. This paper examines the properties of rolling…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-16 Christian Gourieroux , Joann Jasiak

For regression model selection via maximum likelihood estimation, we adopt a vector representation of candidate models and study the likelihood ratio confidence region for the regression parameter vector of a full model. We show that when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Min Tsao