Related papers: Modeling the Sunspot Number Distribution with a Fo…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…
Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…
The rise and fall in the number of sunspots have served as a lynchpin in many investigations on solar dynamics. Arising from magnetic disturbances in the sun, variations in sunspot numbers have helped define a solar cycle of around eleven…
We propose a model based on coupled multiplicative stochastic processes to understand the dynamics of competing species in an ecosystem. This process can be conveniently described by a Fokker-Planck equation. We provide an analytical…
The space missions MOST, COROT and Kepler are going to provide us with high-precision optical photometry of solar-like stars with time series extending from tens of days to several years. They can be modelled to obtain information on…
Solar activity is an important driver of long-term climate trends and must be accounted for in climate models. Unfortunately, direct measurements of this quantity over long periods do not exist. The only observation related to solar…
The difference between consecutive daily Sunspot Numbers was analysed. Its distribution was approximated on a large time scale with an exponential law. In order to verify this approximation a Maximum Entropy distribution was generated by a…
When the complete understanding of a complex system is not available, as, e.g., for systems considered in the real-world, we need a top-down approach to complexity. In this approach one may start with the desire to understand general…
Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to…
The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activity, the…
In this study, we generalize the Fokker-Planck equation to two-dimensional cases, including potential functions with periodic boundary conditions and piecewise-defined structures, to analyze the probability distribution in multi-field…
In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…
This note deals with a multivariate stochastic approach to forecast the behaviour of a cyclic time series. Particular attention is devoted to the problem of the prediction of time behaviour of sunspot numbers for the current 23th cycle. The…
Modeling the rotation history of solar-type stars is still an unsolved problem in modern astrophysics. One of the main challenges is to explain the dispersion in the distribution of stellar rotation rate for young stars. Previous works have…
The relative number of sunspots represents the longest evidence describing the level of solar activity. As such, its use goes beyond solar physics, e.g. towards climate research. The construction of a single representative series is a…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
This contribution presents a derivation of the steady-state distribution of velocities and distances of vehicles in freeway traffic which has been suggested for the evaluation of interaction potentials among vehicles (see preprint…
The evolution of magnetospheric indices on temporal scales shorter than that of substorms is characterized by bursty, intermittent events that may arise from turbulence intrinsic to the magnetosphere or may reflect solar wind-magnetosphere…
A framework for the analysis of stochastic models of chemical systems for which the deterministic mean-field description is undergoing a saddle-node infinite period (SNIPER) bifurcation is presented. Such a bifurcation occurs for example in…
The activity-related variations in the solar acoustic frequencies have been known for 30 years. However, the importance of the different contributions is still not well established. With this in mind, we developed an empirical model to…