Related papers: Transition Probability Matrix Methodology for Incr…
The project managers who deal with risk management are often faced with the difficult task of determining the relative importance of the various sources of risk that affect the project. This prioritisation is crucial to direct management…
In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
We introduce a simple but effective method for managing risk in model-based reinforcement learning with trajectory sampling that involves probabilistic safety constraints and balancing of optimism in the face of epistemic uncertainty and…
Sequential decisions in volatile, high-stakes settings require more than maximizing expected return; they require principled uncertainty management. This paper presents the Uncertainty-Aware Markov Decision Process (UAMDP), a unified…
Penalized transformation models (PTMs) are a semiparametric location-scale regression family that estimate a response's conditional distribution directly from the data, and model the location and scale through structured additive…
We study two Bayesian (Reference Intrinsic and Jeffreys prior) and two frequentist (MLE and PWM) approaches to calibrating the Pareto and related distributions. Three of these approaches are compared in a simulation study and all four to…
Families of exact solutions are found to a nonlinear modification of the Black-Scholes equation. This risk-adjusted pricing methodology model (RAPM) incorporates both transaction costs and the risk from a volatile portfolio. Using the Lie…
Clinical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) collect hundreds of measurements spanning various metric types (e.g., laboratory tests, cognitive/motor assessments, etc.) across 100s-1000s of subjects to evaluate the effect of a treatment, but…
Fueled by advances in both robust optimization theory and reinforcement learning (RL), robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) have garnered increasing attention due to their powerful capability for sequential decision-making under…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
Portfolio theory is a very powerful tool in the modern investment theory. It is helpful in estimating risk of an investor's portfolio, which arises from our lack of information, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of reality, which forbids…
In classical Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), action costs and transition probabilities are assumed to be known, although an accurate estimation of these parameters is often not possible in practice. This study addresses MDPs under cost…
Sequence-to-Sequence (seq2seq) tasks transcribe the input sequence to a target sequence. The Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) criterion is widely used in multiple seq2seq tasks. Besides predicting the target sequence, a side…
This dissertation makes three main contributions. First, We identify a new connection between policy gradient and dynamic programming in MMDPs and propose the Coordinate Ascent Dynamic Programming (CADP) algorithm to compute a Markov policy…
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…
We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…
Risk management is very important for individual investors or companies. There are many ways to measure the risk of investment. Prices of risky assets vary rapidly and randomly due to the complexity of finance market. Random interval is a…
This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…
Given a random walk a method is presented to produce a matrix of transition probabilities that is consistent with that random walk. The method is a kind of reverse application of the usual ergodicity and is tested by using a transition…