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This study concerns problems of time-series forecasting under the weakest of assumptions. Related results are surveyed and are points of departure for the developments here, some of which are new and others are new derivations of previous…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-17 L. Gyorfi , G. Morvai , S. Yakowitz

In this paper we study aspects of the ergodic theory of the geodesic flow on a non-compact negatively curved manifold. It is a well known fact that every continuous potential on a compact metric space has a maximizing measure.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Felipe Riquelme , Anibal Velozo

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

We study the limiting behavior of multiple ergodic averages involving several not necessarily commuting measure preserving transformations. We work on two types of averages, one that uses iterates along combinatorial parallelepipeds, and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-02-09 Qing Chu , Nikos Frantzikinakis

We consider a nonstationary random walk on a compact metrizable abelian group. Under a classical strict aperiodicity assumption we establish a weak-* convergence to the Haar measure, Ergodic Theorem and Large Deviation Type Estimate.

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-07-30 Grigorii Monakov

Asymptotic equivalence theory developed in the literature so far are only for bounded loss functions. This limits the potential applications of the theory because many commonly used loss functions in statistical inference are unbounded. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-03 T. Tony Cai , Harrison H. Zhou

This article introduces a novel nonparametric methodology for Generalized Linear Models which combines the strengths of the binary regression and latent variable formulations for categorical data, while overcoming their disadvantages.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-12 K. P. Chowdhury

We consider adaptive maximum-likelihood-type estimators and adaptive Bayes-type ones for discretely observed ergodic diffusion processes with observation noise whose variance is constant. The quasi-likelihood functions for the diffusion and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-03 Shogo H. Nakakita , Masayuki Uchida

In this paper, we consider nonparametric multidimensional finite mixture models and we are interested in the semiparametric estimation of the population weights. Here, the i.i.d. observations are assumed to have at least three components…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-14 Elisabeth Gassiat , Judith Rousseau , Elodie Vernet

There is a long-standing debate in the statistical, epidemiological and econometric fields as to whether nonparametric estimation that uses data-adaptive methods, like machine learning algorithms in model fitting, confer any meaningful…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-21 Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Caleb H. Miles , Joseph Antonelli , Ivan Diaz

We prove a pointwise ergodic theorem and a maximal inequality for actions of amenable groups on noncommutative measure spaces. To do so, we establish a square function estimate quantifying the difference between ergodic averages and some…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2025-08-29 Léonard Cadilhac , Simeng Wang

This study considers regression analysis of a circular response with an error-prone linear covariate. Starting with an existing estimator of the circular regression function that assumes error-free covariate, three approaches are proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-25 Nicholas Woolsey , Xianzheng Huang

Based on the q-exponential distribution which has been observed in more and more physical systems, the varentropy method is used to derive the uncertainty measure of such an abnormal distribution function. The uncertainty measure obtained…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2010-09-07 Congjie Ou , Aziz El Kaabouchi , Qiuping A. Wang , Jincan Chen

We study limit laws for return time processes defined on infinite conservative ergodic measure preserving dynamical systems. Especially for the critical cases with purely atomic limiting distribution we derive distorted processes posessing…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-06-20 Marc Kesseböhmer , Mehdi Slassi

In this paper, we give a sufficient condition for the existence of a quasi-ergodic distribution for absorbing Markov processes. Using an orthogonal-polynomial approach, we prove that the previous main result is valid for the birth-death…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-25 Guoman He , Hanjun Zhang , Yixia Zhu

Bayesian estimation is a vital tool in robotics as it allows systems to update the robot state belief using incomplete information from noisy sensors. To render the state estimation problem tractable, many systems assume that the motion and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Miguel Saavedra-Ruiz , Steven A. Parkison , Ria Arora , James Richard Forbes , Liam Paull

We first describe a general class of optimization problems that describe many natural, economic, and statistical phenomena. After noting the existence of a conserved quantity in a transformed coordinate system, we outline several instances…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-04-03 David Rushing Dewhurst

We explore the construction of nonsubjective prior distributions in Bayesian statistics via a posterior predictive relative entropy regret criterion. We carry out a minimax analysis based on a derived asymptotic predictive loss function and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Trevor J. Sweeting , Gauri S. Datta , Malay Ghosh

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation and prediction for nonhomogeneous Poisson process models with unknown intensity functions. We propose a class of improper priors for intensity functions. Nonparametric Bayesian inference with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 Fumiyasu Komaki

In this paper, we consider the robust adaptive non parametric estimation problem for the drift coefficient in diffusion processes. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the improved weighted least square estimates, is proposed.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Svyatoslav Perelevskiy , Irina Makarova