Related papers: Metric Entropy and the Optimal Prediction of Chaot…
Given a stochastic nonlinear system controlled over a possibly noisy communication channel, the paper studies the largest class of channels for which there exist coding and control policies so that the closed-loop system is stochastically…
Two general upper bounds on the topological entropy of nonlinear time-varying systems are established: one using the matrix measure of the system Jacobian, the other using the largest real part of the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix with…
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event…
We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…
This paper is the second in a series of two, and describes the current state of the art in modelling and prediction of chaotic time series. Sampled data from deterministic non-linear systems may look stochastic when analysed with linear…
We consider the lossless compression bound of any individual data sequence. If we fit the data by a parametric model, the entropy quantity $nH({\hat \theta}_n)$ obtained by plugging in the maximum likelihood estimate is an underestimate of…
The forecasting of high-dimensional, spatiotemporal nonlinear systems has made tremendous progress with the advent of model-free machine learning techniques. However, in real systems it is not always possible to have all the information…
Under certain conditions, the rate of increase of the statistical entropy of a simple, fully chaotic, conservative system is known to be given by a single number, characteristic of this system, the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy rate. This…
A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node…
Chaotic synchronization performs poorly in noisy environments, with the main drawback being that the coherent receiver cannot be implemented in realistic communication channels. In this paper, we focus our study on a promising communication…
In networked control, a fundamental problem is to determine the smallest capacity of a communication channel between a dynamical system and a controller above which a prescribed control objective can be achieved. Often, a preliminary task…
Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, characterized by extensive input sequences, as opposed to the shorter spans typical of traditional approaches. While longer sequences…
While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of…
Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and…
Using the method of symbolic dynamics, we show that a large class of classical chaotic maps exhibit exponential hypersensitivity to perturbation, i.e., a rapid increase with time of the information needed to describe the perturbed time…
Given a stable L\'{e}vy process $X=(X_t)_{0\le t\le T}$ of index $\alpha\in(1,2)$ with no negative jumps, and letting $S_t=\sup_{0\le s\le t}X_s$ denote its running supremum for $t\in [0,T]$, we consider the optimal prediction problem…
Various lower bounds are established for the entropy of sums, products and their combinations. First, we derive a prime-field analogue of a version of the entropy power inequality established by Tao over torsion-free groups. Next, we prove…
We study entropies caused by the unstable part of partially hyperbolic systems. We define unstable metric entropy and unstable topological entropy, and establish a variational principle for partially hyperbolic diffeomorphsims, which states…
We derive a tight lower bound on equivocation (conditional entropy), or equivalently a tight upper bound on mutual information between a signal variable and channel outputs. The bound is in terms of the joint distribution of the signals and…
The entropy maximum approach (Maxent) was developed as a minimization of the subjective uncertainty measured by the Boltzmann--Gibbs--Shannon entropy. Many new entropies have been invented in the second half of the 20th century. Now there…