Related papers: A Gaussian mixture ensemble transform filter
Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo approximation of the Kalman filter for high dimensional linear Gaussian state space models. EnKF methods have also been developed for parameter inference of static Bayesian models with a…
Data assimilation is the task to combine evolution models and observational data in order to produce reliable predictions. In this paper, we focus on ensemble-based recursive data assimilation problems. Our main contribution is a hybrid…
Conventional approximations to Bayesian inference rely on either approximations by statistics such as mean and covariance or by point particles. Recent advances such as the ensemble Gaussian mixture filter have generalized these notions to…
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations…
Although data assimilation originates from control theory, the relationship between modern data assimilation methods in geoscience and model predictive control has not been extensively explored. In the present paper, I discuss that the…
We address the problem of observation noise misspecification in Bayesian filtering of dynamical systems via recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference. Mis-match in tail decay between the true data generating process and an assumed…
This paper introduces a Gaussian Bayesian Network-based Extended Kalman Filter (GBN-EKF) for non-linear state estimators on stiff and ill-conditioned continuous-discrete stochastic systems, with a further analysis on systems with…
Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in state estimation and parameter estimation for the dynamic system where observational data is obtained sequentially in time. To reduce uncertainty and accelerate posterior inference, a…
Most Kalman filter extensions assume Gaussian noise and when the noise is non-Gaussian, usually other types of filters are used. These filters, such as particle filter variants, are computationally more demanding than Kalman type filters.…
Finite mixture such as the Gaussian mixture is a flexible and powerful probabilistic modeling tool for representing the multimodal distribution widely involved in many estimation and learning problems. The core of it is representing the…
This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…
This work introduces a novel probabilistic deep learning technique called deep Gaussian mixture ensembles (DGMEs), which enables accurate quantification of both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. By assuming the data generating process…
The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to…
We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose…
The iterative ensemble Kalman filter (IEnKF) in a deterministic framework was introduced in Sakov et al. (2012) to extend the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and improve its performance in mildly up to strongly nonlinear cases. However, the…
The inverse problem of determining parameters in a model by comparing some output of the model with observations is addressed. This is a description for what hat to be done to use the Gauss-Markov-Kalman filter for the Bayesian estimation…
Data assimilation (DA) aims to optimally combine model forecasts and observations that are both partial and noisy. Multi-model DA generalizes the variational or Bayesian formulation of the Kalman filter, and we prove that it is also the…
The majority of data assimilation (DA) methods in the geosciences are based on Gaussian assumptions. While these assumptions facilitate efficient algorithms, they cause analysis biases and subsequent forecast degradations. Non-parametric,…
Counter-adversarial system design problems have lately motivated the development of inverse Bayesian filters. For example, inverse Kalman filter (I-KF) has been recently formulated to estimate the adversary's Kalman-filter-tracked estimates…