Related papers: Decision Theory with Prospect Interference and Ent…
We identify the presence of typically quantum effects, namely 'superposition' and 'interference', in what happens when human concepts are combined, and provide a quantum model in complex Hilbert space that represents faithfully experimental…
Categorization is necessary for many decision making tasks. However, the categorization process may interfere the decision making result and the law of total probability can be violated in some situations. To predict the interference effect…
Human communication is based on a variety of inferences that we draw from sentences, often going beyond what is literally said. While there is wide agreement on the basic distinction between entailment, implicature, and presupposition, the…
Superdeterminism - where the Measurement Independence assumption in Bell's Theorem is violated - is frequently assumed to imply implausibly conspiratorial correlations between properties $\lambda$ of particles being measured and measurement…
As physics searches for invariants in observations, this paper looks for invariants of probabilistic observation without assuming physical structure. Structure emerges from the basic assumption of science that new information shall lead to…
Existing observational approaches for learning human preferences, such as inverse reinforcement learning, usually make strong assumptions about the observability of the human's environment. However, in reality, people make many important…
The 'conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches…
No man is an island, as individuals interact and influence one another daily in our society. When social influence takes place in experiments on a population of interconnected individuals, the treatment on a unit may affect the outcomes of…
Decision paralysis, i.e. hesitation, freezing, or failure to act despite full knowledge and motivation, poses a challenge for choice models that assume options are already specified and readily comparable. Drawing on qualitative reports in…
The quantum decision theory introduced recently is formulated as a quantum theory of measurement. It describes prospect states represented by complex vectors of a Hilbert space over a prospect lattice. The prospect operators, acting in this…
Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting…
Intentions are crucial for our practical reasoning. The rational intention obeys some simple logical principles, such as agglomeration and consistency, among others, motivating the search for a proper logic of intention. However, such a…
A primary motivation for reasoning under uncertainty is to derive decisions in the face of inconclusive evidence. However, Shafer's theory of belief functions, which explicitly represents the underconstrained nature of many reasoning…
The 'expected utility hypothesis' and 'Savage's Sure-Thing Principle' are violated in real life decisions, as shown by the 'Allais' and 'Ellsberg paradoxes'. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely…
Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…
Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action…
The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical laws. In this paper, an Evidential Markov (EM) decision making model…
Recovering and distinguishing between the strict-preference, indifference and/or indecisiveness parts of a decision maker's preferences is a challenging task but also important for testing theory and conducting welfare analysis. This paper…
Randomized experiments in which the treatment of a unit can affect the outcomes of other units are becoming increasingly common in healthcare, economics, and in the social and information sciences. From a causal inference perspective, the…
Can stated preferences inform counterfactual analyses of actual choice? This research proposes a novel approach to researchers who have access to both stated choices in hypothetical scenarios and actual choices, matched or unmatched. The…