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Statistical inference on the mean of a Poisson distribution is a fundamentally important problem with modern applications in, e.g., particle physics. The discreteness of the Poisson distribution makes this problem surprisingly challenging,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-03 Ryan Martin , Duncan Ermini Leaf , Chuanhai Liu

We study generalisations of a simple, combinatorial proof of a Chernoff bound similar to the one by Impagliazzo and Kabanets (RANDOM, 2010). In particular, we prove a randomized version of the hitting property of expander random walks and…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2015-01-16 Jan Hązła , Thomas Holenstein

Strong and general entropic and geometric Heisenberg limits are obtained, for estimates of multiparameter unitary displacements in quantum metrology, such as the estimation of a magnetic field from the induced rotation of a probe state in…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-08-03 Michael J. W. Hall

We present new scalar and matrix Chernoff-style concentration bounds for a broad class of probability distributions over the binary hypercube $\{0,1\}^n$. Motivated by recent tools developed for the study of mixing times of Markov chains on…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2022-01-07 Tali Kaufman , Rasmus Kyng , Federico Soldá

Global discrete optimization is notoriously difficult due to the lack of gradient information and the curse of dimensionality, making exhaustive search infeasible. Tensor cross approximation is an efficient technique to approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-19 Sergey Dolgov , Dmitry Savostyanov

For a wide class of monotonic functions $f$, we develop a Chernoff-style concentration inequality for quadratic forms $Q_f \sim \sum\limits_{i=1}^n f(\eta_i) (Z_i + \delta_i)^2$, where $Z_i \sim N(0,1)$. The inequality is expressed in terms…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-14 Robert E. Gallagher , Louis J. M. Aslett , David Steinsaltz , Ryan R. Christ

Best possible bounds are established for families without s pairwise disjoint members and the more general problem for several families. The results are shown to apply several classical results.

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-04-24 Peter Frankl

We study two-layer belief networks of binary random variables in which the conditional probabilities Pr[childlparents] depend monotonically on weighted sums of the parents. In large networks where exact probabilistic inference is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Michael Kearns , Lawrence Saul

We consider the question of learning the natural parameters of a $k$ parameter minimal exponential family from i.i.d. samples in a computationally and statistically efficient manner. We focus on the setting where the support as well as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Abhin Shah , Devavrat Shah , Gregory W. Wornell

An a posteriori estimate for the error of a standard Krylov approximation to the matrix exponential is derived. The estimate is based on the defect (residual) of the Krylov approximation and is proven to constitute a rigorous upper bound on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-03 Tobias Jawecki , Winfried Auzinger , Othmar Koch

A Poisson Binomial distribution over $n$ variables is the distribution of the sum of $n$ independent Bernoullis. We provide a sample near-optimal algorithm for testing whether a distribution $P$ supported on $\{0,...,n\}$ to which we have…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-10-15 Jayadev Acharya , Constantinos Daskalakis

Bayesian inference for exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) is a doubly-intractable problem because of the intractability of both the likelihood and posterior normalizing factor. Auxiliary variable based Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-15 Fan Yin , Carter T. Butts

Recently much attention has been paid to deep generative models, since they have been used to great success for variational inference, generation of complex data types, and more. In most all of these settings, the goal has been to find a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-19 Sean R. Bittner , John P. Cunningham

We provide optimal lower bounds for two well-known parameter estimation (also known as statistical estimation) tasks in high dimensions with approximate differential privacy. First, we prove that for any $\alpha \le O(1)$, estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-05 Shyam Narayanan

Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-17 Soudeep Deb , Rishideep Roy , Shubhabrata Das

We propose an adaptive randomized truncation estimator for Krylov subspace methods that optimizes the trade-off between the solution variance and the computational cost, while remaining unbiased. The estimator solves a constrained…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Qi Luo , Florian Schäfer

It can be important in Bayesian analyses of complex models to construct informative prior distributions which reflect knowledge external to the data at hand. Nevertheless, how much prior information an analyst can elicit from an expert will…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-10 Xueou Wang , David J. Nott , C. C. Drovandi , Kerrie Mengersen , Michael Evans

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides a principled framework for selecting observations or experiments. We introduce new Bayesian design criteria based on the expected Wasserstein-$p$ distance between the prior and posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tapio Helin , Youssef Marzouk , Jose Rodrigo Rojo-Garcia

The one-inclusion graph algorithm of Haussler, Littlestone, and Warmuth achieves an optimal in-expectation risk bound in the standard PAC classification setup. In one of the first COLT open problems, Warmuth conjectured that this prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Ishaq Aden-Ali , Yeshwanth Cherapanamjeri , Abhishek Shetty , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

We address the fundamental limits of learning unknown parameters of any stochastic process from time-series data, and discover exact closed-form expressions for how optimal inference scales with observation length. Given a parametrized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-09 Paul M. Riechers
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