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In the context of time-subordinated Brownian motion models, Fourier theory and methodology are proposed to modelling the stochastic distribution of time increments. Gaussian Variance-Mean mixtures and time-subordinated models are reviewed…
Fractional Brownian motion is a generalised Gaussian diffusive process that is found to describe numerous stochastic phenomena in physics and biology. Here we introduce a multi-dimensional fractional Brownian motion (FBM) defined as a…
The linear fractional stable motion (LFSM) extends the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) by considering $\alpha$-stable increments. We propose a method to forecast future increments of the LFSM from past discrete-time observations, using the…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
First passage models, where corporate assets undergo correlated random walks and a company defaults if its assets fall below a threshold provide an attractive framework for modeling the default process. Typical one year default correlations…
We propose a novel diffusion-based generative framework for financial time series that incorporates geometric Brownian motion (GBM), the foundation of the Black--Scholes theory, into the forward noising process. Unlike standard score-based…
We derive the first-passage-time statistics of a Brownian motion driven by an exponential time-dependent drift up to a threshold. This process corresponds to the signal integration in a simple neuronal model supplemented with an…
This paper explores the capabilities of the Constant Elasticity of Variance model driven by a mixed-fractional Brownian motion (mfCEV) [Axel A. Araneda. The fractional and mixed-fractional CEV model. Journal of Computational and Applied…
Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is a canonical model for long-memory phenomena. In the presence of large amounts of potentially memory-bearing data, the data are often averaged, which can change the structure of the underlying…
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, much attention has been paid to investigating the appropriateness of the current practice of default risk modeling in banking, finance and insurance industries. A recent empirical study by…
We have developed a statistical technique to test the model assumption of binary regime switching extension of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model by proposing a new discriminating statistics. Given a time series data, we have…
The main purpose of this paper is to extend the information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody-Hughston-Macrina to a more general set-up. We include a wider class of models for market information and in contrast to the original paper,…
In this paper, we study a continuous time structural asset value model for two correlated firms using a two-dimensional Brownian motion. We consider the situation of incomplete information, where the information set available to the market…
We address the so-called calibration problem which consists of fitting in a tractable way a given model to a specified term structure like, e.g., yield or default probability curves. Time-homogeneous jump-diffusions like Vasicek or…
A statistical, path-dependent framework to describe time-dependent macroscopic theories using the Principle of Maximum Caliber is presented. By means of this procedure, it is possible to infer predictive non-equilibrium statistical…
We consider the intensity-based approach for the modeling of default times of one or more companies. In this approach the default times are defined as the jump times of a Cox process, which is a Poisson process conditional on the…
We study a generalized geometric Brownian motion framework that incorporates both entries of new units and exit mechanisms for the current population, extending earlier stochastic resetting models where these rates are treated as identical.…
In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference for partially observed fractional Brownian motion (fBM) models. The approach we follow is to time-discretize the hidden process and then to design Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…
We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for…