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Likelihood functions evaluated using particle filters are typically noisy, computationally expensive, and non-differentiable due to Monte Carlo variability. These characteristics make conventional optimization methods difficult to apply…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Genshiro Kitagawa

In this paper, we consider static parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state-space models. Our goal is to obtain an unbiased estimate of the gradient of the log-likelihood (score function), which is an estimate that is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-01 Marco Ballesio , Ajay Jasra

Strongly log-concave (SLC) distributions are a rich class of discrete probability distributions over subsets of some ground set. They are strictly more general than strongly Rayleigh (SR) distributions such as the well-known determinantal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-14 Joshua Robinson , Suvrit Sra , Stefanie Jegelka

We study the maximum smoothed likelihood estimator (MSLE) for interval censoring, case 2, in the so-called separated case. Characterizations in terms of convex duality conditions are given and strong consistency is proved. Moreover, we show…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Piet Groeneboom

The James-Stein estimator is an estimator of the multivariate normal mean and dominates the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under squared error loss. The original work inspired great interest in developing shrinkage estimators for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-28 Chun-Hao Yang , Hani Doss , Baba C. Vemuri

The fate of scientific hypotheses often relies on the ability of a computational model to explain the data, quantified in modern statistical approaches by the likelihood function. The log-likelihood is the key element for parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-27 Bas van Opheusden , Luigi Acerbi , Wei Ji Ma

We propose to smooth the entire objective function, rather than only the check function, in a linear quantile regression context. Not only does the resulting smoothed quantile regression estimator yield a lower mean squared error and a more…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-16 Marcelo Fernandes , Emmanuel Guerre , Eduardo Horta

Maximum likelihood estimation problems are, in general, intractable optimization problems. As a result, it is common to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) using convex relaxations. In some cases, the relaxation is tight: it…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-15 Afonso S. Bandeira , Nicolas Boumal , Amit Singer

We develop a new primitive for stochastic optimization: a low-bias, low-cost estimator of the minimizer $x_\star$ of any Lipschitz strongly-convex function. In particular, we use a multilevel Monte-Carlo approach due to Blanchet and Glynn…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-29 Hilal Asi , Yair Carmon , Arun Jambulapati , Yujia Jin , Aaron Sidford

The log-likelihood of a generative model often involves both positive and negative terms. For a temporal multivariate point process, the negative term sums over all the possible event types at each time and also integrates over all the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-03 Hongyuan Mei , Tom Wan , Jason Eisner

We study a non-parametric approach to multivariate density estimation. The estimators are piecewise constant density functions supported by binary partitions. The partition of the sample space is learned by maximizing the likelihood of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-21 Linxi Liu , Wing Hung Wong

We show that a mixture of Beta distributions has log-concave density whenever the mixing weights are themselves log-concave. Some economic and statistical applications are provided in the last section.

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-10 Xiaosheng Mu

In simulation-based inferences for partially observed Markov process models (POMP), the by-product of the Monte Carlo filtering is an approximation of the log likelihood function. Recently, iterated filtering [14, 13] has originally been…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-26 Dao Nguyen

Stochastic approximation methods play a central role in maximum likelihood estimation problems involving intractable likelihood functions, such as marginal likelihoods arising in problems with missing or incomplete data, and in parametric…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Valentin De Bortoli , Alain Durmus , Marcelo Pereyra , Ana F. Vidal

Constraining the maximum likelihood density estimator to satisfy a sufficiently strong constraint, $\log-$concavity being a common example, has the effect of restoring consistency without requiring additional parameters. Since many results…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-11-26 Ryan Cumings-Menon

In this article, we revisit the problem of estimating the unknown zero-symmetric distribution in a two-component location mixture model, considered in previous works, now under the assumption that the zero-symmetric distribution has a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-09 Fadoua Balabdaoui , Charles R. Doss

A Maximum Likelihood recursive state estimator is derived for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The estimator combines a particle filter to generate the conditional density and the Expectation Maximization algorithm to compute…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-22 Mohammad S. Ramadan , Robert R. Bitmead

Bi-log-concavity of probability measures is a univariate extension of the notion of log-concavity that has been recently proposed in a statistical literature. Among other things, it has the nice property from a modelisation perspective to…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-20 Adrien Saumard

Full likelihood has been widely used in loss tomography because most believe it can produce accurate estimates although the full likelihood estimators proposed so far are complex in structure and expensive in execution. We in this paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-14 Weiping Zhu

Sobolev quantities (norms, inner products, and distances) of probability density functions are important in the theory of nonparametric statistics, but have rarely been used in practice, partly due to a lack of practical estimators. They…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-25 Shashank Singh , Simon S. Du , Barnabás Póczos