Related papers: Limit Theorems in Hidden Markov Models

We derive a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem, a law of the iterated logarithm and a large deviation theorem for so-called deviation means of independent and identically distributed random variables (for the strong law of…

A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…

Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a…

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…

In a vast area of probabilistic limit theorems for dynamical systems with chaotic behaviors always only functional form (exponential, power, etc) of the asymptotic laws and of convergence rates were studied. However, for basically all…

Under the sublinear expectation $\mathbb{E}[\cdot]:=\sup_{\theta\in \Theta} E_\theta[\cdot]$ for a given set of linear expectations $\{E_\theta: \theta\in \Theta\}$, we establish a new law of large numbers and a new central limit theorem…

We consider a hidden Markov model with multiple observation processes, one of which is chosen at each point in time by a policy---a deterministic function of the information state---and attempt to determine which policy minimises the…

We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…

The paper is a sketch of systematic presentation of distributional limit theorems and their refinements for compound sums. When analyzing, e.g., ergodic semi-Markov systems with discrete or continuous time, this allows us to separate those…

This paper focuses on limit theorems for linear Hawkes processes with random marks. We prove a large deviation principle, which answers the question raised by Bordenave and Torrisi. A central limit theorem is also obtained. We conclude with…

We establish central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes in infinite dimension with spatially dependent and non-necessarily local branching mechanisms. This result relies on a fourth moment…

The law of large numbers for the empirical density for the pairs of uniformly distributed integers with a given greatest common divisor is a classic result in number theory. In this paper, we study the large deviations of the empirical…

The goal of this paper is to describe conditions which guarantee a central limit theorem for random variables, which distributions are controled by hidden Markov chains. We proved that when a Markov chain is ergodic and random variables…

Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…

We prove a central limit theorem applicable to one dimensional stochastic approximation algorithms that converge to a point where the error terms of the algorithm do not vanish. We show how this applies to a certain class of these…

This paper develops an optimal Chernoff type bound for the probabilities of large deviations of sums $\sum_{k=1}^n f (X_k)$ where $f$ is a real-valued function and $(X_k)_{k \in \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}}$ is a finite state Markov chain with an…

In the present paper, we obtain limit theorems for a catogary of Hull-White models with Hawkes jumps including law of large numbers, central limit theorem, and large deviations. In the field of interest rate modeling, it is meaningful in…

The idea of the restricted mean has been used to establish a significantly improved version of Markov's inequality that does not require any new assumptions. The result immediately extends on Chebyshev's inequalities and Chernoff's bound.…

An identity between two versions of the Chernoff bound on the probability a certain large deviations event, is established. This identity has an interpretation in statistical physics, namely, an isothermal equilibrium of a composite system…

We consider the Fleming--Viot particle system associated with a continuous-time Markov chain in a finite space. Assuming irreducibility, it is known that the particle system possesses a unique stationary distribution, under which its…