Related papers: Testing for parameter constancy in general causal …
The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…
In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…
This paper proposes a new statistic to test independence between two high dimensional random vectors ${\mathbf{X}}:p_1\times1$ and ${\mathbf{Y}}:p_2\times1$. The proposed statistic is based on the sum of regularized sample canonical…
We consider continuous-time models with a large panel of moment conditions, where the structural parameter depends on a set of characteristics, whose effects are of interest. The leading example is the linear factor model in financial…
This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We…
Model checking is usually based on a comprehensive traversal of the state space. Causality-based model checking is a radically different approach that instead analyzes the cause-effect relationships in a program. We give an overview on a…
Let $(X_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a possibly nonstationary sequence such that $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=P_n$ if $i\leq n\theta$ and $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=Q_n$ if $i>n\theta$, where $0<\theta <1$ is the location of the change-point to be estimated. We…
The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…
Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…
A class of tests for change-point detection designed to be particularly sensitive to changes in the cross-sectional rank correlation of multivariate time series is proposed. The derived procedures are based on several multivariate…
Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the Gaussian pseudo-maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in a wide class of ARCH$(\infty)$ processes are established. The conditions are shown to hold in case of exponential and…
We propose a framework for determining whether the causal dependence of an outcome $Y$ on a covariate $X$ changes at a given time point, given confounders $\boldsymbol{Z}$. For instance, in financial markets, the effect of a market…
Statistical inference for stochastic processes with time-varying spectral characteristics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We develop a nonparametric test for stationarity against the alternative of a smoothly…
We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…
We describe two families of statistical tests to detect partial correlation in vectorial timeseries. The tests measure whether an observed timeseries Y can be predicted from a second series X, even after accounting for a third series Z…
This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…
We develop Wasserstein-based hypothesis tests for empirical-measure convergence in stationary dependent sequences. For a known candidate invariant measure, $\mu$, we study the statistic $T_n=\sqrt{n}\,W_1(\hat\mu_n,\mu)$ and establish…
A method for an evaluation of the error between an unknown parameter and its estimator is developed. Its application enables us to preserve the asymptotic power of a constructed test. Testing problems in AR(1) and ARCH models are studied…
This paper establishes the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for a GARCH process with periodically time-varying parameters. We first give a necessary and sufficient condition for…
A novel method is proposed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of moderate dimensional time series. This non-linear test statistic has a number of useful properties. Most importantly, it is independent of the underlying…