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Related papers: Proper local scoring rules

200 papers

The success of denoising diffusion models raises important questions regarding their generalisation behaviour, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Notably, it has been shown that when training and sampling are performed perfectly,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-08 Tyler Farghly , Patrick Rebeschini , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

This paper investigates a local central limit theorem for a normalized sequence of random variables belonging to a fixed order Wiener chaos and converging to the standard normal distribution. We prove, without imposing any additional…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Masahisa Ebina , Ivan Nourdin , Giovanni Peccati

We study a class of ordinary differential equations with a non-Lipschitz point singularity, which admit non-unique solutions through this point. As a selection criterion, we introduce stochastic regularizations depending on the parameter…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Theodore D. Drivas , Alexei A. Mailybaev , Artem Raibekas

Stable distributions are an important class of infinitely-divisible probability distributions, of which two special cases are the Cauchy distribution and the normal distribution. Aside from a few special cases, the density function for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-31 Sebastian Ament , Michael O'Neil

We prove global existence, uniqueness and $\L1$ stability of solutions to general systems of nonlocal conservation laws modeling multiclass vehicular traffic. Each class follows its own speed law and has specific effects on the other…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-01-29 Rinaldo M. Colombo , Mauro Garavello , Claudia Nocita

We give a general local central limit theorem for the sum of two independent random variables, one of which satisfies a central limit theorem while the other satisfies a local central limit theorem with the same order variance. We apply…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-16 Mathew D. Penrose , Yuval Peres

Estimating the dependences between random variables, and ranking them accordingly, is a prevalent problem in machine learning. Pursuing frequentist and information-theoretic approaches, we first show that the p-value and the mutual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Harald Steck

Distributive laws are important for algebraic reasoning in arithmetic and logic. They are equally important for algebraic reasoning about concurrent programs. In existing theories such as Concurrent Kleene Algebra, only partial correctness…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-03-21 Larissa A. Meinicke , Ian J. Hayes

We construct a model of expert prediction where predictions can influence the state of the world. Under this model, we show through theoretical and numerical results that proper scoring rules can incentivize experts to manipulate the world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Alan Chan

The law of large numbers for the empirical density for the pairs of uniformly distributed integers with a given greatest common divisor is a classic result in number theory. In this paper, we study the large deviations of the empirical…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-07 Behzad Mehrdad , Lingjiong Zhu

Scoring rules are widely used to rank athletes in sports and candidates in elections. Each position in each individual ranking is worth a certain number of points; the total sum of points determines the aggregate ranking. The question is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Aleksei Y. Kondratev , Egor Ianovski , Alexander S. Nesterov

Probabilistic forecasting relies on past observations to provide a probability distribution for a future outcome, which is often evaluated against the realization using a scoring rule. Here, we perform probabilistic forecasting with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-06 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Rilwan Adewoyin , Peter Dueben , Ritabrata Dutta

In this paper we develop a method to transfer density results for primitive automatic sequences to logarithmic-density results for general automatic sequences. As an application we show that the logarithmic densities of any automatic…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-14 Boris Adamczewski , Michael Drmota , Clemens Müllner

We study holonomic gradient decent for maximum likelihood estimation of exponential-polynomial distribution, whose density is the exponential function of a polynomial in the random variable. We first consider the case that the support of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-17 Jumpei Hayakawa , Akimichi Takemura

Humans are accustomed to environments that contain both regularities and exceptions. For example, at most gas stations, one pays prior to pumping, but the occasional rural station does not accept payment in advance. Likewise, deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-16 Ziheng Jiang , Chiyuan Zhang , Kunal Talwar , Michael C. Mozer

We propose a quantitative direct method to prove the local stability of a stationary solution for a rough differential equation and its regular discretization scheme. Using Doss-Sussmann technique and stopping time analysis, we provide…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-09-24 Luu Hoang Duc , Phan Thanh Hong , Nguyen Dinh Cong

Shafer (2021) offers a betting perspective on statistical testing which may be useful for foundational debates, given that disputes over such testing continue to be intense. To be helpful for researchers, however, this perspective will need…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-11 Sander Greenland

This paper examines asymptotic properties of local M-estimators under three sets of high-level conditions. These conditions are sufficiently general to cover the minimum volume predictive region, conditional maximum score estimator for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-15 Myung Hwan Seo , Taisuke Otsu

We establish global well-posedness and convergence of the score-based generative models (SGM) under minimal general assumptions of initial data for score estimation. For the smooth case, we start from a Lipschitz bound of the score function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Connor Mooney , Zhongjian Wang , Jack Xin , Yifeng Yu

A q-query locally testable code (LTC) is an error correcting code that can be tested by a randomized algorithm that reads at most q symbols from the given word. An important question is whether there exist LTCs that have the ccc-property:…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2010-12-14 Irit Dinur , Tali Kaufman