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Using current empirical data from 10,000 BCE to 2023 CE, we re-examine a hyperbolic pattern of human population growth, which was identified by von Foerster et al. in 1960 with a predicted singularity in 2026. We find that human population…
The report considers the dynamics of the global population as the unique case of the Socio-Economic Soft Matter system. This category was introduced for complex systems dominated by mesoscale assemblies, emerging due to the inherent…
In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…
Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous…
We consider the effect of non-constant parameters on the human-forest interaction logistic model coupled with human technological growth introduced in "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis"[1]. In…
The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we…
The dynamic theory of inhomogeneous populations developed during the last decade predicts several essential new dynamic regimes applicable even to the well-known, simple population models. We show that, in an inhomogeneous population with a…
Growth of the world population and the world economic growth were hyperbolic in the past 2,000,000 years. Recently, from around 1950, they started to be diverted to slower trajectories but they are still close to the historical hyperbolic…
We study how urban quality evolves as a result of carbon dioxide emissions as urban agglomerations grow. We employ a bottom-up approach combining two unprecedented microscopic data on population and carbon dioxide emissions in the…
Texas ERCOT is experiencing rapid population growth that increases electricity demand and creates new reliability challenges. At the same time, decarbonization policies are being considered, adding uncertainty about future generation…
We report that population dynamics in fluctuating environment accompanies mathematically equivalent structure to steady state thermodynamics. By employing the structure, population growth in fluctuating environment is decomposed into…
Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial…
We provide ex-post empirical analysis of the effects of climate policies on carbon dioxide emissions at the aggregate national level. Our results are based on a comprehensive database of 121 countries. As climate policies we examine carbon…
In this article, a stochastic individual-based model describing Darwinian evolution of asexual, phenotypic trait-structured population, is studied. We consider a large population with constant population size characterised by a resampling…
We show that a simple nonlinear differential equation (originally studied in the physics of disordered systems) is able to mathematically describe the global population growth over the past 12000 years. Different regimes of population…
Climate change and global warming are among the most significant issues that humanity is currently facing, and also among the issues that pose the greatest threats to all mankind. These issues are primarily driven by abnormal increases in…
In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a…
Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase…
Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined…