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Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…

The integration of physical relationships into stochastic models is of major interest e.g. in data assimilation. Here, a multivariate Gaussian random field formulation is introduced, which represents the differential relations of the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-14 Rüdiger Hewer , Petra Friederichs , Andreas Hense , Martin Schlather

We propose a flexible regression framework to model the conditional distribution of multilevel generalized multivariate functional data of potentially mixed type, e.g. binary and continuous data. We make pointwise parametric distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Alexander Volkmann , Nikolaus Umlauf , Sonja Greven

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-02-04 K. Triantafyllopoulos

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-02-17 Logan C. Brooks , David C. Farrow , Sangwon Hyun , Ryan J. Tibshirani , Roni Rosenfeld

Stationary points embedded in the derivatives are often critical for a model to be interpretable and may be considered as key features of interest in many applications. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model to efficiently infer the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Cheng-Han Yu , Meng Li , Colin Noe , Simon Fischer-Baum , Marina Vannucci

Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-10 Yarin Gal , Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Variational autoencoders often assume isotropic Gaussian priors and mean-field posteriors, hence do not exploit structure in scenarios where we may expect similarity or consistency across latent variables. Gaussian process variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-17 Metod Jazbec , Michael Pearce , Vincent Fortuin

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

The article develops marginal models for multivariate longitudinal responses. Overall, the model consists of five regression submodels, one for the mean and four for the covariance matrix, with the latter resulting by considering various…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-18 Georgios Papageorgiou

In this article, we propose a new nonparametric data analysis tool, which we call nonparametric modal regression, to investigate the relationship among interested variables based on estimating the mode of the conditional density of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-23 Weixin Yao , Sijia Xiang

Model uncertainty is pervasive in real world analysis situations and is an often-neglected issue in applied statistics. However, standard approaches to the research process do not address the inherent uncertainty in model building and,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-01 Mariana Nold , Florian Meinfelder , David Kaplan

We address the problem of providing inference from a Bayesian perspective for parameters selected after viewing the data. We present a Bayesian framework for providing inference for selected parameters, based on the observation that…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-13 Daniel Yekutieli

Compared to mean regression and quantile regression, the literature on modal regression is very sparse. A unifying framework for Bayesian modal regression is proposed, based on a family of unimodal distributions indexed by the mode, along…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Qingyang Liu , Xianzheng Huang , Rai Bai

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

The availability of data from multiple heterogeneous environments has motivated methods that remain reliable under distributional shifts. When the joint distribution of response and predictors varies across environments, the response may…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Ruqian Zhang , Juan Shen , Yijiao Zhang

Recent progress in variational inference has paid much attention to the flexibility of variational posteriors. One promising direction is to use implicit distributions, i.e., distributions without tractable densities as the variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-26 Jiaxin Shi , Shengyang Sun , Jun Zhu
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