Related papers: Bayesian estimation of GARCH model with an adaptiv…
Our article is concerned with adaptive sampling schemes for Bayesian inference that update the proposal densities using previous iterates. We introduce a copula based proposal density which is made more efficient by combining it with…
We develop a new efficient methodology for Bayesian global sensitivity analysis for large-scale multivariate data. The focus is on computationally demanding models with correlated variables. A multivariate Gaussian process is used as a…
In this paper, an application of three GARCH-type models (sGARCH, iGARCH, and tGARCH) with Student t-distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED), and Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution are examined. The new development allows…
The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…
We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…
We introduce a gradient-based learning method to automatically adapt Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposal distributions to intractable targets. We define a maximum entropy regularised objective function, referred to as generalised speed…
This paper offers a new approach for estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes. On the contrary, we only suppose that the volatility can be…
We develop an algorithm for automatic differentiation of Metropolis-Hastings samplers, allowing us to differentiate through probabilistic inference, even if the model has discrete components within it. Our approach fuses recent advances in…
We present a general framework for defining priors on model structure and sampling from the posterior using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The key idea is that structure priors are defined via a probability tree and that the proposal…
We propose an adaptive independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm with the ability to learn from all previous proposals in the chain except the current location. It is an extension of the independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm.…
We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for estimating the joint density of a multivariate outcome of interest in the presence of categorical covariates. Leveraging a Gaussian copula framework, our method effectively captures the dependence…
Motivated by Bayesian inference with highly informative data we analyze the performance of random walk-like Metropolis-Hastings algorithms for approximate sampling of increasingly concentrating target distributions. We focus on Gaussian…
In Bayesian inverse problems, the posterior distribution is used to quantify uncertainty about the reconstructed solution. In practice, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms often are used to draw samples from the posterior distribution.…
This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…
This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…
Graphical models describe associations between variables through the notion of conditional independence. Gaussian graphical models are a widely used class of such models where the relationships are formalized by non-null entries of the…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
Bayesian mixture models are widely applied for unsupervised learning and exploratory data analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo based on Gibbs sampling and split-merge moves are widely used for inference in these models. However, both methods…
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized…
In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…