Related papers: Non-asymptotic deviation inequalities for smoothed…

We present Fractional Diffusion Bridge Models (FDBM), a novel generative diffusion bridge framework driven by an approximation of the rich and non-Markovian fractional Brownian motion (fBM). Real stochastic processes exhibit a degree of…

Smoothing operation to make continuous density field from observed point-like distribution of galaxies is crucially important for topological or morphological analysis of the large-scale structure, such as, the genus statistics or the area…

We study the so-called two-time-scale stochastic approximation, a simulation-based approach for finding the roots of two coupled nonlinear operators. Our focus is to characterize its finite-time performance in a Markov setting, which often…

This paper discusses particle filtering in general hidden Markov models (HMMs) and presents novel theoretical results on the long-term stability of bootstrap-type particle filters. More specifically, we establish that the asymptotic…

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skew-t distributed measurement noise are presented. The proposed algorithms improve upon our earlier proposed filter and smoother using the mean field…

M-type smoothing splines are a broad class of spline estimators that include the popular least-squares smoothing spline but also spline estimators that are less susceptible to outlying observations and model-misspecification. However,…

In this paper, we study the estimation and inference of change points under a functional linear regression model with changes in the slope function. We present a novel Functional Regression Binary Segmentation (FRBS) algorithm which is…

In this paper we address the convergence of stochastic approximation when the functions to be minimized are not convex and nonsmooth. We show that the "mean-limit" approach to the convergence which leads, for smooth problems, to the ODE…

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a popular research topic for generative modeling of discrete data, thanks to their superior performance over other discrete diffusion models, and are rivaling the auto-regressive models (ARMs)…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…

This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…

We investigate the Local Asymptotic Property for fractional Brownian models based on discrete observations contaminated by a Gaussian moving average process. We consider both situations of low and high-frequency observations in a unified…

We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…

Smoothing is a specialized form of Bayesian inference for state-space models that characterizes the posterior distribution of a collection of states given an associated sequence of observations. Ramgraber et al. (2023) proposes a general…

Forecast verification plays a crucial role in the development cycle of operational numerical weather prediction models. At the same time, verification remains a challenge as the traditionally used non-spatial forecast quality metrics…

This paper is devoted to the convergence analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms of the form $\theta\_{n+1} = \theta\_n + \gamma\_{n+1} H\_{\theta\_n}(X\_{n+1})$ where $\{\theta\_nn, n \geq 0\}$ is a $R^d$-valued sequence,…

This paper discusses a general framework for smoothing parameter estimation for models with regular likelihoods constructed in terms of unknown smooth functions of covariates. Gaussian random effects and parametric terms may also be…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely applied in studies where a discrete-valued process of interest is observed indirectly. They have for example been used to model behaviour from human and animal tracking data, disease status from…

In this two-part work, we propose an algorithmic framework for solving non-convex problems whose objective function is the sum of a number of smooth component functions plus a convex (possibly non-smooth) or/and smooth (possibly non-convex)…