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Bayesian inference methods are useful in infectious diseases modeling due to their capability to propagate uncertainty, manage sparse data, incorporate latent structures, and address high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Xiahui Li , Fergus Chadwick , Ben Swallow

Bayesian inference, while foundational to probabilistic reasoning, is often hampered by the computational intractability of posterior distributions, particularly through the challenging evidence integral. Conventional approaches like Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Di Zhang

We address the problem of uncertainty propagation in the discrete Fourier transform by modeling the fast Fourier transform as a factor graph. Building on this representation, we propose an efficient framework for approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Luca Schmid , Charlotte Muth , Laurent Schmalen

We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Angus Lewis , Antonio Parrella , John Maclean , Andrew J. Black

A new algorithm for solving large-scale convex optimization problems with a separable objective function is proposed. The basic idea is to combine three techniques: Lagrangian dual decomposition, excessive gap and smoothing. The main…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-12-01 Tran Dinh Quoc , Carlo Savorgnan , Moritz Diehl

We present the Wavelet-based Edge Multiscale Parareal (WEMP) Algorithm, recently proposed in [Li and Hu, {\it J. Comput. Phys.}, 2021], for efficiently solving subdiffusion equations with heterogeneous coefficients in long time. This…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-14 Guanglian Li

In recent years, researchers in decision analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) have used Bayesian belief networks to build models of expert opinion. Using standard methods drawn from the theory of computational complexity, workers in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 R. Martin Chavez , Gregory F. Cooper

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are widely used in statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference in non-conjugate LGMs is difficult due to intractable integrals involving the Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihoods. Algorithms…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-06-06 Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Aleksandr Y. Aravkin , Michael P. Friedlander , Matthias Seeger

Expectation propagation is a general prescription for approximation of integrals in statistical inference problems. Its literature is mainly concerned with Bayesian inference scenarios. However, expectation propagation can also be used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 P. Hall , I. M. Johnstone , J. T. Ormerod , M. P. Wand , J. C. F. Yu

Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , David M. Blei

Several numerical approximation strategies for the expectation-propagation algorithm are studied in the context of large-scale learning: the Laplace method, a faster variant of it, Gaussian quadrature, and a deterministic version of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-16 Alexis Roche

Ordinal categorical data are routinely encountered in many practical applications. When the primary goal is to construct a regression model for ordinal outcomes, cumulative link models represent one of the most popular choices to link the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Emanuele Aliverti

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

This paper presents a novel approach for approximate integration over the uncertainty of noise and signal variances in Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our efficient and straightforward approach can also be applied to integration over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-18 Ville Tolvanen , Pasi Jylänki , Aki Vehtari

This paper presents a new accelerated proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology to perform Bayesian inference in imaging inverse problems with an underlying convex geometry. The proposed strategy takes the form of a stochastic relaxed…

Belief propagation (BP) is a powerful tool to solve distributed inference problems, though it is limited by short cycles in the corresponding factor graph. Such cycles may lead to incorrect solutions or oscillatory behavior. Only for…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-08 Christopher Lindberg , Julien M. Hendrickx , Henk Wymeersch

This article revisits the problem of Bayesian shape-restricted inference in the light of a recently developed approximate Gaussian process that admits an equivalent formulation of the shape constraints in terms of the basis coefficients. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Pallavi Ray , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

Bayesian graphical models are a useful tool for understanding dependence relationships among many variables, particularly in situations with external prior information. In high-dimensional settings, the space of possible graphs becomes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-07 Zehang Richard Li , Tyler H. McCormick

This paper describes a new algorithm for exact Bayesian inference that is based on a recently proposed compositional semantics of Bayesian networks in terms of channels. The paper concentrates on the ideas behind this algorithm, involving a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-04-24 Bart Jacobs

We consider the general problem of finding the minimum weight $\bm$-matching on arbitrary graphs. We prove that, whenever the linear programming (LP) relaxation of the problem has no fractional solutions, then the belief propagation (BP)…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Mohsen Bayati , Christian Borgs , Jennifer Chayes , Riccardo Zecchina