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This book aims to provide a graduate-level introduction to advanced topics in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, as applied broadly in the Bayesian computational context. Most, if not all of these topics (stochastic gradient MCMC,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-18 Paul Fearnhead , Christopher Nemeth , Chris J. Oates , Chris Sherlock

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-25 Fabian Krüger , Sebastian Lerch , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Tilmann Gneiting

Monte Carlo significance tests are a general tool that produce p-values by generating samples from the null distribution. However, Monte Carlo tests are limited to null hypothesis which we can exactly sample from. Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Michael Howes

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

In this paper, we develop Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods for inference in asymmetric GARCH models under different distributions for the error term. We implemented Zero-variance and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo schemes for parameter…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-24 Rafael S. Paixão , Ricardo S. Ehlers

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides a feasible method for inferring Hidden Markov models, however, it is often computationally prohibitive, especially constrained by the curse of dimensionality, as the Monte Carlo sampler traverses…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Xiongming Dai , Gerald Baumgartner

A new methodology is presented for the construction of control variates to reduce the variance of additive functionals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. Our control variates are definedthrough the minimization of the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-09 Nicolas Brosse , Alain Durmus , Sean Meyn , Eric Moulines , Anand Radhakrishnan

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

We propose a novel framework of estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-08 Takaaki Koike , Marius Hofert

Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-21 Caroline Svahn , Mattias Villani

Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-25 James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-10 Qifan Song , Yan Sun , Mao Ye , Faming Liang

This paper presents how to use common random number (CRN) simulation to evaluate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) convergence to stationarity. We provide an upper bound on the Wasserstein distance of a Markov chain to its stationary…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sabrina Sixta , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal , Austin Brown

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a popular technique in Bayesian statistical modeling. They have long been used to obtain samples from posterior distributions, but recent research has focused on the scalability of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-02 Nicholas A. Johnson , Frank O. Kuehnel , Ali Nasiri Amini

An introduction to the use of linchpin variables in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is provided. Before the widespread adoption of MCMC methods, conditional sampling using linchpin variables was essentially the only practical approach for…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-26 Dootika Vats , Felipe Acosta , Mark L. Huber , Galin L. Jones

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Galin Jones , Murali Haran , Brian Caffo , Ronald Neath

We consider batch size selection for a general class of multivariate batch means variance estimators, which are computationally viable for high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-18 Ying Liu , Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and unbiased estimators recently proposed by McLeish (Monte Carlo Methods Appl., 2011) and Rhee and Glynn (Oper. Res., 2015) are closely related. This connection is elaborated by presenting a new general class…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-12 Matti Vihola

Calculating averages with respect to multimodal probability distributions is often necessary in applications. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to this end, which are based on time averages along a realization of a Markov process…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-24 M. Chak , T. Lelièvre , G. Stoltz , U. Vaes

We introduce Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms based on numerical approximations of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes obtained with the framework of splitting schemes. We present unadjusted as well as adjusted algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Andrea Bertazzi , Paul Dobson , Pierre Monmarché