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Related papers: Prognostic Watch of the Electric Power System

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As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-26 Hossein Sangrody , Morteza Sarailoo , Ning Zhou , Nhu Tran , Mahdi Motalleb , Elham Foruzan

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Janik Pinter , Frederik Zahn , Maximilian Beichter , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer

Power system dynamic state estimation (DSE) remains an active research area. This is driven by the absence of accurate models, the increasing availability of fast-sampled, time-synchronized measurements, and the advances in the capability,…

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Linian Wang , Jianghong Liu , Huibin Zhang , Leye Wang

The field of electricity price forecasting has seen significant advances in the last years, including the development of new, more accurate forecast models. These models leverage statistical relationships in previously observed data to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Hussain Kazmi

The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Michela Moschella , Mauro Tucci , Emanuele Crisostomi , Alessandro Betti

Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-07-13 Daniel Dylewsky , David Barajas-Solano , Tong Ma , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky , J. Nathan Kutz

This paper investigates the stakes of introducing probabilistic approaches for the management of power system's security. In real-time operation, the aim is to arbitrate in a rational way between preventive and corrective control, while…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-02-18 Efthymios Karangelos , Patrick Panciatici , Louis Wehenkel

Electrical power grids are vulnerable to cascading failures that can lead to large blackouts. Detection and prevention of cascading failures in power grids is impor- tant. Currently, grid operators mainly monitor the state (loading level)…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-07-20 Martijn Warnier , Stefan Dulman , Yakup Koç , Eric Pauwels

Accurate intraday forecasts are essential for power system operations, complementing day-ahead forecasts that gradually lose relevance as new information becomes available. This paper introduces a Bayesian updating mechanism that converts…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-17 Kutay Bölat , Peter Palensky , Simon Tindemans

How to determine the vector of power supplies of a stochastic power system for the next short horizon, such that the probability is less than a prespecified value that any phase-angle difference of a power line of the power network exits…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-16 Zhen Wang , Kaihua Xi , Aijie Cheng , Hai Xiang Lin , Jan H. van Schuppen

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Tao Fu , Huifen Zhou , Xu Ma , Z. Jason Hou , Di Wu

Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-06 Michael Scheuerer , David Möller

Integration of variable energy resources -- e.g., solar, wind, and hydro -- and end-use electrification increase modern energy systems' weather-dependence. Identifying critical infrastructure constraining the power grid's ability to meet…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-03-27 Katerina Tang , M. Vivienne Liu , C. Lindsay Anderson , Vivek Srikrishnan

Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-04-07 Mohamed Abuella , Badrul Chowdhury

The energy market relies on forecasting capabilities of both demand and power generation that need to be kept in dynamic balance. Today, when it comes to renewable energy generation, such decisions are increasingly made in a liberalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Odin Foldvik Eikeland , Finn Dag Hovem , Tom Eirik Olsen , Matteo Chiesa , Filippo Maria Bianchi

This paper deals with the control of pumps in large-scale water distribution networks with the aim of minimizing economic costs while satisfying operational constraints. Finding a control algorithm in combination with a model that can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-01 Mirhan Ürkmez , Carsten Kallesøe , Jan Dimon Bendtsen , John Leth

Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-22 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

Photovoltaic systems have been widely deployed in recent times to meet the increased electricity demand as an environmental-friendly energy source. The major challenge for integrating photovoltaic systems in power systems is the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-13 Reza Zafarani , Sara Eftekharnejad , Urvi Patel

Energy (load, wind, photovoltaic) forecasting is significant in the power industry as it can provide a reference for subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, thus bringing huge economic benefits. However, there are many differences…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Zhixian Wang , Qingsong Wen , Chaoli Zhang , Liang Sun , Leandro Von Krannichfeldt , Shirui Pan , Yi Wang