Related papers: Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation for wavelength …
This article provides an overview of some interfaces between the theory of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods and applications. We summarize three QMC theoretical settings: first order QMC methods in the unit cube $[0,1]^s$ and in…
The conformal formulation of the Einstein constraint equations has been studied intensively since the modern version of the conformal method was first pub- lished in the early 1970s. Proofs of existence and uniqueness of solutions were…
A family of semi-intrusive uncertainty propagation (UP) methods for multiscale models is introduced. The methods are semi-intrusive in the sense that inspection of the model is limited up to the level of the single scale systems, and…
Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for studying the equilibrium properties of matter. In complex condensed-phase systems, however, it is difficult to design Monte Carlo moves with high acceptance probabilities that also…
In this report, we present qualitative analysis of Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method for measuring model uncertainty in neural network (NN) models. We first consider the sources of uncertainty in NNs, and briefly review Bayesian Neural…
Whilst an abundance of techniques have recently been proposed to generate counterfactual explanations for the predictions of opaque black-box systems, markedly less attention has been paid to exploring the uncertainty of these generated…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…
The increasing sensitivity of current and upcoming gravitational-wave (GW) detectors poses stringent requirements on the accuracy of the GW models used for data analysis. If these requirements are not met, systematic errors could dominate…
Intractable generative models are models for which the likelihood is unavailable but sampling is possible. Most approaches to parameter inference in this setting require the computation of some discrepancy between the data and the…
This project investigates the applicability of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to Euclidean lattice systems in order to improve the asymptotic error scaling of observables for such theories. The error of an observable calculated by averaging over…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as…
An acceleration of continuous time quantum Monte Carlo (CTQMC) methods is a potentially interesting branch of work as they are matchless as impurity solvers of a density functional theory in combination with a dynamical mean field theory…
In many models used in engineering and science, material properties are uncertain or spatially varying. For example, in geophysics, and porous media flow in particular, the uncertain permeability of the material is modelled as a random…
Quantum Monte Carlo methods are powerful techniques for studying strongly interacting Fermi systems. However, implementing these methods on computers with finite-precision arithmetic requires careful attention to numerical stability. In the…
We describe a number of strategies for minimizing and calculating accurately the statistical uncertainty in quantum Monte Carlo calculations. We investigate the impact of the sampling algorithm on the efficiency of the variational Monte…
A technique for characterizing and correcting the linearity of radiometric instruments is known by the names the "flux-addition method" and the "combinatorial technique". In this paper, we develop a rigorous uncertainty quantification…
Quantiles and expected shortfalls are usually used to measure risks of stochastic systems, which are often estimated by Monte Carlo methods. This paper focuses on the use of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method, whose convergence rate is…
The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method allows sampling from continuous densities. Favorable scaling with dimension has led to wide adoption of HMC by the statistics community. Modern auto-differentiating software should allow more…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has become routinely used for sampling from posterior distributions. Its extension Riemann manifold HMC (RMHMC) modifies the proposal kernel through distortion of local distances by a Riemannian metric. The…
In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…