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We propose a score test for dependence predictability in conditional copulas that is robust to temporal instabilities. Our semiparametric procedure accommodates flexible dynamics in the marginal processes and remains agnostic about the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-03 Alexander Mayer , Tatsushi Oka , Dominik Wied

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-06 Raphaël G. Huser , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We consider the sequential composite binary hypothesis testing problem in which one of the hypotheses is governed by a single distribution while the other is governed by a family of distributions whose parameters belong to a known set…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-30 Jiachun Pan , Yonglong Li , Vincent Y. F. Tan

Recently, several strong limit theorems for the oscillation moduli of the empirical process have been given in the iid-case. We show that, with very slight differences, those strong results are also obtained for some representation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-01 Gane Samb Lo

Under a mild condition we give closed-form expressions for copulas of systems that consist of maxima and of minima of subvectors of a given random vector $X$ with continuous marginals. Said expressions appear explicit in the copula of $X$…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-31 Matija Vidmar , Matjaž Omladič

We study the behavior of bivariate empirical copula process $\mathbb{G}_n(\cdot,\cdot)$ on pavements $[0,k_n/n]^2$ of $[0,1]^2,$ where $k_n$ is a sequence of positive constants fulfilling some conditions. We provide a upper bound for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-06 Salim Bouzebda , Tarek Zari

A copula of continuous random variables $X$ and $Y$ is called an \emph{implicit dependence copula} if there exist functions $\alpha$ and $\beta$ such that $\alpha(X) = \beta(Y)$ almost surely, which is equivalent to $C$ being factorizable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Songkiat Sumetkijakan

The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-02 José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , James Robert Lloyd , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Most common parametric families of copulas are totally ordered, and in many cases they are also positively or negatively regression dependent and therefore they lead to monotone regression functions, which makes them not suitable for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Arturo Erdely

The purpose of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of the weighted least square estimators of the unknown parameters of random coefficient bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under suitable assumptions on the immigration and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-20 Vassili Blandin

In this paper, we study finite-sample properties of the least squares estimator in first order autoregressive processes. By leveraging a result from decoupling theory, we derive upper bounds on the probability that the estimate deviates by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-26 Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators of the unknown parameters of bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under very weak assumptions on the driven noise of the process, namely conditional pair-wise independence…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-29 Bernard Bercu , Benoite de Saporta , Anne Gegout-Petit

In this paper, we study the identifiability and the estimation of the parameters of a copula-based multivariate model when the margins are unknown and are arbitrary, meaning that they can be continuous, discrete, or mixtures of continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 Bouchra R. Nasri , Bruno N. Remillard

We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence (in the sense of finite dimensional distributions) of multiplicative measures on the set of partitions. We show that this convergence is equivalent to asymptotic independence…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-28 Boris L. Granovsky

The present contribution derives an explicit expression for (a version of) every uni- and multi-variate conditional distribution (i.e., Markov kernel) of Archimedean copulas and uses this representation to generalize a recently established…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-07 Thimo Maria Kasper

We study the sequential empirical process indexed by general function classes and its smoothed set-indexed analogue. Sufficient conditions for asymptotic equicontinuity are provided for nonstationary arrays of time series. This yields…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Florian Alexander Scholze , Ansgar Steland

New nonparametric tests of copula exchangeability and radial symmetry are proposed. The novel aspect of the tests is a resampling procedure that exploits group invariance conditions associated with the relevant symmetry hypothesis. They may…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-16 Brendan K. Beare , Juwon Seo

When the limiting compensator of a sequence of martingales is continuous, we obtain a weak convergence theorem for the martingales; the limiting process can be written as a Brownian motion evaluated at the compensator and we find sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-22 Bruno Rémillard , Jean Vaillancourt

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-07 Gordon Gudendorf , Johan Segers

Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-26 Evgeny Levi , Radu V. Craiu