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In this article we develop algorithms for data assimilation based upon a computational time dependent stable/unstable splitting. Our particular method is based upon shadowing refinement and synchronization techniques and is motivated by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Bart de Leeuw , Svetlana Dubinkina , Jason Frank , Andrew Steyer , Xuemin Tu , Erik Van Vleck

We propose two new methods based/inspired by machine learning for tabular data and distance-free localization to enhance the covariance estimations in an ensemble data assimilation. The main goal is to enhance the data assimilation results…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Vinicius L. S. Silva , Gabriel S. Seabra , Alexandre A. Emerick

Self-consistency -- sampling multiple reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer -- was designed for an era when language models made frequent, unpredictable errors. This study argues that the technique has become increasingly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Chiyan Loo

We present an embedding of stochastic optimal control problems, of the so called path integral form, into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Using consistent, sample based estimates of the embedding leads to a model free, non-parametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-14 Konrad Rawlik , Marc Toussaint , Sethu Vijayakumar

Stochastic simulation models are generative models that mimic complex systems to help with decision-making. The reliability of these models heavily depends on well-calibrated input model parameters. However, in many practical scenarios,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-11 Ziwei Su , Diego Klabjan

We consider goodness-of-fit tests of symmetric stable distributions based on weighted integrals of the squared distance between the empirical characteristic function of the standardized data and the characteristic function of the standard…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-06 Muneya Matsui , Akimichi Takemura

Auto-calibration is an important property of regression functions for actuarial applications. Comparably little is known about statistical testing of auto-calibration. Denuit et al.~(2024) recently published a test with an asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Mario V. Wüthrich

Recognizing symmetries in data allows for significant boosts in neural network training, which is especially important where training data are limited. In many cases, however, the exact underlying symmetry is present only in an idealized…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-04-07 Seth Nabat , Aishik Ghosh , Edmund Witkowski , Gregor Kasieczka , Daniel Whiteson

This paper introduces a notion of data informativity for stabilization tailored to continuous-time signals and systems. We establish results comparable to those known for discrete-time systems with sampled data. We justify that additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-14 Jaap Eising , Jorge Cortes

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Oscar Key , So Takao , Daniel Giles , Marc Peter Deisenroth

When the data do not conform to the hypothesis of a known sampling-variance, the fitting of a constant to a set of measured values is a long debated problem. Given the data, fitting would require to find what measurand value is the most…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-07-21 Giovanni Mana , Enrico Massa , Maria Predescu

Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-14 Stefanie Legler , Tijana Janjic

A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-09-01 Issac Shams , Saeede Ajorlou , Kai Yang

Verification and validation of fully automated vehicles is linked to an almost intractable challenge of reflecting the real world with all its interactions in a virtual environment. Influential stochastic parameters need to be extracted…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-22 Katrin Lotto , Thomas Nagler , Mladjan Radic

Sampling arises simultaneously with input and output delays in networked control systems. When the delay is left uncompensated, the sampling period is generally required to be sufficiently small, the delay sufficiently short, and, for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-12-13 Iasson Karafyllis , Miroslav Krstic

The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inference of autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for serial correlations based on the maximum (or ${\cal L}^\infty$) and the quadratic (or ${\cal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Han Xiao , Wei Biao Wu

Deep learning classifiers are assisting humans in making decisions and hence the user's trust in these models is of paramount importance. Trust is often a function of constant behavior. From an AI model perspective it means given the same…

Data assimilation (DA) is a fundamental computational technique that integrates numerical simulation models and observation data on the basis of Bayesian statistics. Originally developed for meteorology, especially weather forecasting, DA…

Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Arman Mohammadi , Mattias Krysander , Daniel Jung , Erik Frisk

We investigate model assessment and selection in a changing environment, by synthesizing datasets from both the current time period and historical epochs. To tackle unknown and potentially arbitrary temporal distribution shift, we develop…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Elise Han , Chengpiao Huang , Kaizheng Wang