Related papers: Comment: How Should Indirect Evidence Be Used?

The traditional view of evidence in mathematics is that evidence is just proof and proof is just derivation. There are good reasons for thinking that this view should be rejected: it misrepresents both historical and current mathematical…

How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…

Deductive verification is an effective method to ensure that a given system exposes the intended behavior. In spite of its proven usefulness and feasibility in selected projects, deductive verification is still not a mainstream technique.…

Language is not only used to transmit neutral information; we often seek to persuade by arguing in favor of a particular view. Persuasion raises a number of challenges for classical accounts of belief updating, as information cannot be…

The predictions from an accurate prognostic model can be of great interest to patients and clinicians. When predictions are reported to individuals, they may decide to take action to improve their health or they may simply be comforted by…

This article reviews recent advances in addressing empirical identification issues in cross-country and country-level studies and their implications for the identification of the effectiveness and consequences of economic sanctions. I argue…

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…

We introduce a logic for reasoning about evidence, that essentially views evidence as a function from prior beliefs (before making an observation) to posterior beliefs (after making the observation). We provide a sound and complete…

In this paper, we propose standard statistical tools as a solution to commonly highlighted problems in the explainability literature. Indeed, leveraging statistical estimators allows for a proper definition of explanations, enabling…

In celebration of the work of Richard Threlkeld Cox, we explore inductive logic and its role in science touching on both experimental design and analysis of experimental results. In this exploration we demonstrate that the duality between…

Reward schemes may affect not only agents' effort, but also their incentives to gather information to reduce the riskiness of the productive activity. In a laboratory experiment using a novel task, we find that the relationship between…

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by…

Order is one of the main instruments to measure the relationship between objects in (empirical) data. However, compared to methods that use numerical properties of objects, the amount of ordinal methods developed is rather small. One reason…

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be…

Scholarly usage data provides unique opportunities to address the known shortcomings of citation analysis. However, the collection, processing and analysis of usage data remains an area of active research. This article provides a review of…

How does the extent to which a model is open or closed impact the scientific inferences that can be drawn from research that involves it? In this paper, we analyze how restrictions on information about model construction and deployment…

Inference networks have a variety of important uses and are constructed by persons having quite different standpoints. Discussed in this paper are three different but complementary methods for generating and analyzing probabilistic…

Citations are the cornerstone of knowledge propagation and the primary means of assessing the quality of research, as well as directing investments in science. Science is increasingly becoming "data-intensive", where large volumes of data…

We introduce a logic for reasoning about evidence that essentially views evidence as a function from prior beliefs (before making an observation) to posterior beliefs (after making the observation). We provide a sound and complete…