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Related papers: Testing for tail behavior using extreme spacings

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Given an arbitrary continuous probability density function, it is introduced a conjugated probability density, which is defined through the Shannon information associated with its cumulative distribution function. These new densities are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-26 H. M. de Oliveira , R. J. Cintra

Models for extreme values are generally derived from limit results, which are meant to be good enough approximations when applied to finite samples. Depending on the speed of convergence of the process underlying the data, these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

Heavy-tailed distributions, such as the Cauchy distribution, are acknowledged for providing more accurate models for financial returns, as the normal distribution is deemed insufficient for capturing the significant fluctuations observed in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-31 Ganesh Vishnu Avhad , Ananya Lahiri , Sudheesh K. Kattumannil

This paper proposes a specification test for the conventional distributional assumptions of error terms in binary choice models, focusing on its tail properties. Based on extreme value theory, we first establish that the tail index of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-31 Ting Ji , Laura Liu , Yulong Wang , Jiahe Xing

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang

Rare events, and more general risk-sensitive quantities-of-interest (QoIs), are significantly impacted by uncertainty in the tail behavior of a distribution. Uncertainty in the tail can take many different forms, each of which leads to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-22 Jeremiah Birrell , Paul Dupuis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet , Jie Wang

We answer a question of Ahlberg and Steif (2014) by finding the tail behaviour of the crossing probability in near-critical planar percolation. Interestingly, this superexponentially small behaviour is different from the case of dynamical…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-03 Gábor Pete

We study deviation of U-statistics when samples have heavy-tailed distribution so the kernel of the U-statistic does not have bounded exponential moments at any positive point. We obtain an exponential upper bound for the tail of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Milad Bakhshizadeh

Estimating the tail index parameter is one of the primal objectives in extreme value theory. For heavy-tailed distributions the Hill estimator is the most popular way to estimate the tail index parameter. Improving the Hill estimator was…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-05 László Németh , András Zempléni

Modeling heterogeneity on heavy-tailed distributions under a regression framework is challenging, and classical statistical methodologies usually place conditions on the distribution models to facilitate the learning procedure. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Jiaxi Wang , Yanxi Hou , Xingchi Li , Tiandong Wang

This paper develops a methodology for robust Bayesian inference through the use of disparities. Metrics such as Hellinger distance and negative exponential disparity have a long history in robust estimation in frequentist inference. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-28 Giles Hooker , Anand Vidyashankar

Isotropic $\alpha$-stable distributions are central in the theory of heavy-tailed distributions and play a role similar to that of the Gaussian density among finite second-moment laws. Given a sequence of $n$ observations, we are interested…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Jihad Fahs , Ibrahim Abou-Faycal , Ibrahim Issa

Various natural phenomena exhibit spatial extremal dependence at short spatial distances. However, existing models proposed in the spatial extremes literature often assume that extremal dependence persists across the entire domain. This is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-01 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , David Bolin

The existence of large and extreme claims of a non-life insurance portfolio influences the ability of (re)insurers to estimate the reserve. The excess over-threshold method provides a way to capture and model the typical behaviour of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-07 Yinzhi Wang , Ingrid Hobæk Haff , Arne Huseby

Linear regression with the classical normality assumption for the error distribution may lead to an undesirable posterior inference of regression coefficients due to the potential outliers. This paper considers the finite mixture of two…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-12 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We leverage recent advances in heavy-tail approximations for global hypothesis testing with dependent studies to construct approximate confidence regions without modeling or estimating their dependence structures. A non-rejection region is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Tianle Liu , Xiao-Li Meng , Natesh S. Pillai

In this work, we establish risk bounds for the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works of Mendelson [Men15, Men18] on the analysis of ERM with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Abhishek Roy , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Murat A. Erdogdu

We consider a multivariate heavy-tailed stochastic volatility model and analyze the large-sample behavior of its sample covariance matrix. We study the limiting behavior of its entries in the infinite-variance case and derive results for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-10 Anja Janßen , Thomas Mikosch , Mohsen Rezapour , Xiaolei Xie

This work proposes a novel method to robustly and accurately model time series with heavy-tailed noise, in non-stationary scenarios. In many practical application time series have heavy-tailed noise that significantly impacts the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-01 Elena Ehrlich , Laurent Callot , François-Xavier Aubet

In the real world, long-tailed data distributions are prevalent, making it challenging for models to effectively learn and classify tail classes. However, we discover that in the field of drug chemistry, certain tail classes exhibit higher…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Yujia Su , Xinjie Li , Lionel Z. Wang