Related papers: Principal Regression Analysis and the index levera…
A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…
In this paper, we propose a novel model to analyze serially correlated two-dimensional functional data observed sparsely and irregularly on a domain which may not be a rectangle. Our approach employs a mixed effects model that specifies the…
The intricate behavior patterns of financial markets are influenced by fundamental, technical, and psychological factors. During times of high volatility and regime shifts causes many traditional strategies like trend-following or…
This paper continues a series of studies of dependence patterns following from properties of the bivariate probability distribution P(x,y) of two consecutive price increments x (push) and y (response). The paper focuses on individual…
Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long ranged…
We investigate whether the tails of firm-level idiosyncratic return distributions are driven by common shocks. We use quantile factor analysis to extract such common idiosyncratic quantile factors with asymmetric pricing effects and we find…
This paper establishes bounds on the predictive performance of empirical risk minimization for principal component regression. Our analysis is nonparametric, in the sense that the relation between the prediction target and the predictors is…
The processes of the averaged regression quantiles and of their modifications provide useful tools in the regression models when the covariates are not fully under our control. As an application we mention the probabilistic risk assessment…
We study in details the skew of stock option smiles, which is induced by the so-called leverage effect on the underlying -- i.e. the correlation between past returns and future square returns. This naturally explains the anomalous…
We use methods of random matrix theory to analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of price changes of the largest 1000 US stocks for the 2-year period 1994-95. We find that the statistics of most of the eigenvalues in the spectrum of C agree…
Post-randomization events, also known as intercurrent events, such as treatment noncompliance and censoring due to a terminal event, are common in clinical trials. Principal stratification is a framework for causal inference in the presence…
We examine volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of aspects like participation, synchronization of stocks and quantification of volatility using the random matrix approach. Volatility pattern of the market is found using the BSE…
We provide a novel method for large volatility matrix prediction with high-frequency data by applying eigen-decomposition to daily realized volatility matrix estimators and capturing eigenvalue dynamics with ARMA models. Given a sequence of…
Regarding the intraday sequence of high frequency returns of the S&P index as daily realizations of a given stochastic process, we first demonstrate that the scaling properties of the aggregated return distribution can be employed to define…
The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…
This article introduces a leave-one-out regression adjustment (LOORA) for estimating average treatment effects in randomized controlled trials. In finite samples, LOORA removes the bias of conventional regression adjustment and yields exact…
This paper develops a Bayesian Generalised Pareto Regression (GPR) model to forecast extreme losses in Indian equity markets, with a focus on the Nifty 50 index. Extreme negative returns, though rare, can cause significant financial…
We uncover a new anomaly in asset pricing that is linked to the remuneration: the more a company spends on salaries and benefits per employee, the better its stock performs, on average. Moreover, the companies adopting similar remuneration…
We study the behavior of two-time correlation functions at late times for finite system sizes considering observables whose (one-point) average value does not depend on energy. In the long time limit, we show that such correlation functions…
We construct a general stochastic process and prove weak convergence results. It is scaled in space and through the parameters of its distribution. We show that our simplified scaling is equivalent to time scaling used frequently. The…