Related papers: Multivariate saddlepoint approximations in tail pr…
The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of a particular multivariate risk measure, the Covariate-Conditional-Tail-Expectation (CCTE), based on a multivariate statistical depth function. Depth functions have become…
In this paper, we compare two numerical methods for approximating the probability that the sum of dependent regularly varying random variables exceeds a high threshold under Archimedean copula models. The first method is based on…
The concept of univariate Range Value-at-Risk, presented by Cont et al. (2010), is extended in the multidimensional setting. Traditional risk measures are not well suited when dealing with heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail…
Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks with widespread applications across machine learning and artificial intelligence systems. While current research has predominantly focused on linear diffusions, these…
A common object to describe the extremal dependence of a $d$-variate random vector $X$ is the stable tail dependence function $L$. Various parametric models have emerged, with a popular subclass consisting of those stable tail dependence…
The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…
The Eldan's stochastic localization is a new kind of stochastic evolution in the space of probability measures which provides a novel way to study high dimensional convex body. A central object in the study of the stochastic localization is…
The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…
We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…
We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…
Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…
We consider stochastic strongly-convex-strongly-concave (SCSC) saddle point (SP) problems which frequently arise in applications ranging from distributionally robust learning to game theory and fairness in machine learning. We focus on the…
The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…
In this paper we consider the extreme behavior of the extremal eigenvalues of white Wishart matrices, which plays an important role in multivariate analysis. In particular, we focus on the case when the dimension of the feature p is much…
We extend upon the saddle-point equation presented in [1] to derive large-time model-implied volatility smiles, providing its theoretical foundation and studying its applications in classical models. As long as characteristic function…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
Quantile regression is an important tool for estimation of conditional quantiles of a response Y given a vector of covariates X. It can be used to measure the effect of covariates not only in the center of a distribution, but also in the…
We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…
We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…
A new multivariate integer-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic process based on a multivariate Poisson generalized inverse Gaussian distribution is proposed. The estimation of parameters of the proposed…