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We investigate the problem of best policy identification in discounted linear Markov Decision Processes in the fixed confidence setting under a generative model. We first derive an instance-specific lower bound on the expected number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Jerome Taupin , Yassir Jedra , Alexandre Proutiere

In this paper, we consider a class of continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic optimal control problems. Building upon recent advances in Markov chain approximation methods and sampling-based algorithms for deterministic path planning,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2012-02-27 Vu Anh Huynh , Sertac Karaman , Emilio Frazzoli

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

Markov chains are the de facto finite-state model for stochastic dynamical systems, and Markov decision processes (MDPs) extend Markov chains by incorporating non-deterministic behaviors. Given an MDP and rewards on states, a classical…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Laurent Doyen

We study the Bayesian problems of detecting a change in the drift rate of an observable diffusion process with linear and exponential penalty costs for a detection delay. The optimal times of alarms are found as the first times at which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-08 Pavel V. Gapeev , Albert N. Shiryaev

We consider a class of sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty that can encompass various types of supervised learning concepts. These problems have a completely observed state process and a partially observed modulation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-24 R. Reid Bishop , Chelsea C. White

A novel sequential change detection problem is proposed, in which the goal is to not only detect but also accelerate the change. Specifically, it is assumed that the sequentially collected observations are responses to treatments selected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-24 Yanglei Song , Georgios Fellouris

In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-24 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

We study discrete-time discounted constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) on Borel spaces with unbounded reward functions. In our approach the transition probability functions are weakly or set-wise continuous. The reward functions…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-29 Eugene A. Feinberg , Anna Jaśkiewicz , Andrzej S. Nowak

The problem of sequential change diagnosis is considered, where observations are obtained on-line, an abrupt change occurs in their distribution, and the goal is to quickly detect the change and accurately identify the post-change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Austin Warner , Georgios Fellouris

We introduce a QPLEX Decision Process (QDP) as a model for dynamic control of queueing systems with non-stationary arrivals, general service distributions, and service-level chance constraints. QDPs integrate QPLEX, a computational modeling…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Antonius B. Dieker , Steven T. Hackman , Zitong Wang , Yunhao Yan

We study Bayesian optimal control of a general class of smoothly parameterized Markov decision problems. Since computing the optimal control is computationally expensive, we design an algorithm that trades off performance for computational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-17 Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Csaba Szepesvari

Consider the following multi-phase project management problem. Each project is divided into several phases. All projects enter the next phase at the same point chosen by the decision maker based on observations up to that point. Within each…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Hock Peng Chan , Cheng-Der Fuh , Inchi Hu

In this work, we aim to obtain the optimal tradeoff between the average delay and the average power consumption in a communication system. In our system, the arrivals occur at each timeslot according to a Bernoulli arrival process and are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Xiang Chen , Wei Chen , Joohyun Lee , Ness B. Shroff

We investigate modifications to Bayesian Optimization for a resource-constrained setting of sequential experimental design where changes to certain design variables of the search space incur a switching cost. This models the scenario where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Stefan Pricopie , Richard Allmendinger , Manuel Lopez-Ibanez , Clyde Fare , Matt Benatan , Joshua Knowles

This paper introduces a new class of optimal switching problems, where the player is allowed to switch at a sequence of exogenous Poisson arrival times, and the underlying switching system is governed by an infinite horizon backward…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-07 Gechun Liang , Wei Wei

Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Annice Najafi , Shokoufeh Mirzaei

We provide an overview of the state-of-the-art in the area of sequential change-point detection assuming discrete time and known pre- and post-change distributions. The overview spans over all major formulations of the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-21 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Many processes, such as discrete event systems in engineering or population dynamics in biology, evolve in discrete space and continuous time. We consider the problem of optimal decision making in such discrete state and action space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Bastian Alt , Matthias Schultheis , Heinz Koeppl

This paper introduces a new recursive stochastic optimal control problem driven by a forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs), where the ter?minal time varies according to the constraints of the state of the forward…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-17 Jiaqi Wang , Shuzhen Yang