Related papers: Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for…
To evaluate the capability of numerical cloud forecast as a meteorological reference for astronomical observation, we compare the cloud forecast from NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model for total, layer and convective cloud with…
The impact of meteorological observations on weather forecasting varies with sensor type, location, time, and other environmental factors. Thus, quantitative analysis of observation impacts is crucial for effective and efficient development…
Cloud cover plays a critical role in weather prediction and impacts several sectors, including agriculture, solar power generation, and aviation. Despite advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, forecasting total cloud…
Monitoring changes of precipitation phase from space is important for understanding the mass balance of Earth's cryosphere in a changing climate. This paper examines a Bayesian nearest neighbor approach for prognostic detection of…
Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical…
This paper presents a parametric model approach to address the problem of photovoltaic generation forecasting in a scenario where measurements of meteorological variables, i.e., solar irradiance and temperature, are not available at the…
We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful…
Precipitation nowcasting, which predicts rainfall up to a few hours ahead, is a critical tool for vulnerable communities in the Global South frequently exposed to intense, rapidly developing storms. Timely forecasts provide a crucial window…
Atmospheric seeing is one of the most important parameters for evaluating and monitoring an astronomical site. Moreover, being able to predict the seeing in advance can guide observing decisions and significantly improve the efficiency of…
Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We reformulate wind…
Sites for next-generation telescopes are chosen decades before the first light of a telescope. Site selection is usually based on recent measurements over a period that is too short to account for long-term changes in observing conditions…
In recent years, there has been growing interest in using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signal delays to predict rainfall. However, the occurrence of rainfall is dependent on a myriad of…
Rainfall is an important variable to be able to monitor and forecast across Africa, due to its impact on agriculture, food security, climate related diseases and public health. Numerical Weather Models (NWM) are an important component of…
Precipitation is dependent on a myriad of atmospheric conditions. In this paper, we study how certain atmospheric parameters impact the occurrence of rainfall. We propose a data-driven, machine-learning based methodology to detect…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are…
Optical turbulence, driven by fluctuations of the atmospheric refractive index, poses a significant challenge to ground-based optical systems, as it distorts the propagation of light. This degradation affects both astronomical observations…
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…
This paper investigates the impact of observations on atmospheric state estimation in weather forecasting systems using graph neural networks (GNNs) and explainability methods. We integrate observation and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)…
The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…
Forecasting the formation and development of clouds is a central element of modern weather forecasting systems. Incorrect clouds forecasts can lead to major uncertainty in the overall accuracy of weather forecasts due to their intrinsic…