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The paper analyzes risk assessment for cash flows in continuous time using the notion of convex risk measures for processes. By combining a decomposition result for optional measures, and a dual representation of a convex risk measure for…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-18 Irina Penner , Anthony Reveillac

We present a general framework for measuring the liquidity risk. The theoretical framework defines a class of risk measures that incorporate the liquidity risk into the standard risk measures. We consider a one-period risk measurement…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-31 Erindi Allaj

This paper introduces marginal fairness, a new individual fairness notion for equitable decision-making in the presence of protected attributes such as gender, race, and religion. This criterion ensures that decisions based on generalized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-27 Fei Huang , Silvana M. Pesenti

We use martingale and stochastic analysis techniques to study a continuous-time optimal stopping problem, in which the decision maker uses a dynamic convex risk measure to evaluate future rewards. We also find a saddle point for an…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-23 Erhan Bayraktar , Ioannis Karatzas , Song Yao

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

We present an algorithm for robust model predictive control with consideration of uncertainty and safety constraints. Our framework considers a nonlinear dynamical system subject to disturbances from an unknown but bounded uncertainty set.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-23 Dongchan Lee , Konstantin Turitsyn , Jean-Jacques Slotine

Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (LTV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Kexin Zhao , Bo Wang , Cuiying Zhao , Tongyao Wan

We establish structural properties of optimal stopping problems under time-consistent dynamic (coherent) risk measures, focusing on value function monotonicity and the existence of control limit (threshold) optimal policies. While such…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-16 Xingyu Ren , Michael C. Fu , Steven I. Marcus

In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-16 Denis Belomestny , Volker Kraetschmer

We define and develop an approach for risk budgeting allocation - a risk diversification portfolio strategy - where risk is measured using a dynamic time-consistent risk measure. For this, we introduce a notion of dynamic risk contributions…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-01 Silvana M. Pesenti , Sebastian Jaimungal , Yuri F. Saporito , Rodrigo S. Targino

In this paper, we consider dynamic risk measures induced by backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We discuss different examples that come up in the literature, including the entropic risk measure and the risk measure arising…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-07 Nacira Agram , Jan Rems , Emanuela Rosazza Gianin

The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-22 Timo Dimitriadis , Yannick Hoga

One of the central objectives of modern risk management is to find a set of risks where the probability of multiple simultaneous catastrophic events is negligible. That is, risks are taken only when their joint behavior seems sufficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Jaakko Lehtomaa , Sidney Resnick

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-02 Igor L. Kheifets

Model risk measures consequences of choosing a model in a class of possible alternatives. We find analytical and simulated bounds for payoff functions on classes of plausible alternatives of a given discrete model. We measure the impact of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-20 Roberto Fontana , Patrizia Semeraro

Starting from the global financial crisis to the more recent disruptions brought about by geopolitical tensions and public health crises, the volatility of risk in financial markets has increased significantly. This underscores the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-22 Fei Sun , Jingchao Li , Jieming Zhou

In this paper, an optimization problem with uncertain constraint coefficients is considered. Possibility theory is used to model the uncertainty. Namely, a joint possibility distribution in constraint coefficient realizations, called…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-07 Romain Guillaume , Adam Kasperski , Pawel Zielinski

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Daphné Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

This paper is concerned with the properties of the sets of strategic measures induced by admissible team policies in decentralized stochastic control and the convexity properties in dynamic team problems. To facilitate a convex analytical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-01 Serdar Yüksel , Naci Saldi

This paper proves, in very general settings, that convex risk minimization is a procedure to select a unique conditional probability model determined by the classification problem. Unlike most previous work, we give results that are general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Matus Telgarsky , Miroslav Dudík , Robert Schapire