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Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-07 Fabio Caccioli , Daniele De Martino

In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Qinyi Chen , Mason A. Porter

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-15 Xiao-Long Peng , Xin-Jian Xu , Xinchu Fu , Tao Zhou

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Jenny Huang , Raphaël Morsomme , David Dunson , Jason Xu

The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-01-29 Gabriel Fabricius , Alberto Maltz

We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on small world network. We show the effects of all the parameters…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-11-19 Mohammed Ali Saif

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 J. Verdasca , M. M. Telo da Gama , A. Nunes , N. R. Bernardino , J. M. Pacheco , M. C. Gomes

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-03-07 Vitaly Belik , Theo Geisel , Dirk Brockmann

We analyze two alterations of the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics that preserve the central properties of spontaneous healing and infection capacity of a vertex increasing unlimitedly with its degree. All models…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-07-19 Wesley Cota , Angélica S. Mata , Silvio C. Ferreira

We investigate the effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on the timescale and final size of infectious disease epidemics. The abundance of transitive relationships (the number of 3 cliques) in a network and the variance of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2010-06-07 Erik M Volz

By generating transient encounters between individuals beyond their immediate social environment, transport can have a profound impact on the spreading of an epidemic. In this work, we consider epidemic dynamics in the presence of the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-11-03 Christian Kuehn , Jan Mölter

We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-04-02 L. D. Valdez , P. A. Macri , L. A. Braunstein

The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-04-05 Rosanna C Barnard , Istvan Z Kiss , Luc Berthouze , Joel C Miller

We consider the class of SIS epidemic models in which a large population of individuals chooses whether to adopt protection or to remain unprotected as the epidemic evolves. For a susceptible individual, adopting protection reduces the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-22 Abhisek Satapathi , Narendra Kumar Dhar , Ashish R. Hota , Vaibhav Srivastava

Cities have long served as nucleating centers for human development and advancement. Cities have facilitated the spread of both human creativity and human disease, and at the same time, efforts to minimize the spread of disease have…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-10 Harold M Hastings , Tai Young-Taft

We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-13 Benjamin Braun , Başak Taraktaş , Brian Beckage , Jane Molofsky

It is commonly known that there exist short paths between vertices in a network showing the small-world effect. Yet vertices, for example, the individuals living in society, usually are not able to find the shortest paths, due to the very…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Han Zhu , Zhuang-Xiong Huang

It is often useful to represent the infectious dynamics of mobile agents by metapopulation models. In such a model, metapopulations form a static network, and individuals migrate from one metapopulation to another. It is known that…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-09-09 Naoki Masuda

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-11-19 Xiao-Long Peng , Michael Small , Xin-Jian Xu , Xinchu Fu

We obtain tight thresholds for bond percolation on one-dimensional small-world graphs, and apply such results to obtain tight thresholds for the \emph{Independent Cascade} process and the \emph{Reed-Frost} process in such graphs. These are…