Related papers: Simulation-based Bayesian analysis for multiple ch…

We consider priors for several nonparametric Bayesian models which use finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a class of Bayesian inference algorithms that targets for problems with intractable or {unavailable} likelihood function. It uses synthetic data drawn from the simulation model to approximate the…

This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…

Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

In high-dimensions, the prior tails can have a significant effect on both posterior computation and asymptotic concentration rates. To achieve optimal rates while keeping the posterior computations relatively simple, an empirical Bayes…

Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…

Posterior sampling by Monte Carlo methods provides a more comprehensive solution approach to inverse problems than computing point estimates such as the maximum posterior using optimization methods, at the expense of usually requiring many…

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

In this article, an overview of Bayesian methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions of nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamic systems is presented. The focus is mainly laid on sequential Monte Carlo methods, which are based…

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the engine of modern Bayesian statistics, being used to approximate the posterior and derived quantities of interest. Despite this, the issue of how the output from a Markov chain is post-processed and…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have revolutionised Bayesian data analysis over the years by making the direct computation of posterior probability densities feasible on modern workstations. However, the calculation of the prior…

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

Recent developments in big data and analytics research have produced an abundance of large data sets that are too big to be analyzed in their entirety, due to limits on computer memory or storage capacity. To address these issues,…

Doubly intractable problems occur when both the likelihood and the posterior are available only in unnormalised form, with computationally intractable normalisation constants. Bayesian inference then typically requires direct approximation…

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

A challenge for practitioners of Bayesian inference is specifying a model that incorporates multiple relevant, heterogeneous data sets. It may be easier to instead specify distinct submodels for each source of data, then join the submodels…