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We present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to analyze photometric galaxy survey data with stellar population synthesis (SPS) models. Our method couples robust modeling of spectral energy distributions with a population model and a noise…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-18 Boris Leistedt , Justin Alsing , Hiranya Peiris , Daniel Mortlock , Joel Leja

The paper tackles the problem of clustering multiple networks, directed or not, that do not share the same set of vertices, into groups of networks with similar topology. A statistical model-based approach based on a finite mixture of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Tabea Rebafka

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

We introduce a dynamic approach to probabilistic forecast reconciliation at scale. Our model differs from the existing literature in this area in several important ways. Firstly we explicitly allow the weights allocated to the base…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Ross Hollyman , Fotios Petropoulos , Michael E. Tipping

One-shirt-size policy cannot handle poverty issues well since each area has its unique challenges, while having a custom-made policy for each area separately is unrealistic due to limitation of resources as well as having issues of ignoring…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-22 Irving Gómez-Méndez , Chainarong Amornbunchornvej

Bayesian hierarchical models are well-suited to analyzing the often noisy data from electroencephalography experiments in cognitive neuroscience: these models provide an intuitive framework to account for structures and correlations in the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-17 Davide Turco , Conor Houghton

Determining if two histograms are consistent, whether they have been drawn from the same underlying distribution or not, is a common problem in physics. Existing approaches are not only limited in power but also inapplicable to histograms…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-09-29 M. J. Betancourt

Datasets containing large samples of time-to-event data arising from several small heterogeneous groups are commonly encountered in statistics. This presents problems as they cannot be pooled directly due to their heterogeneity or analyzed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-05 Alexandre Piché , Russell Steele , Ian Shrier , Stephanie Long

It is proposed in the literature that in some complicated problems maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are not suitable or even do not exist. An alternative to MLE for estimation of the parameters is the Bayesian method. The Markov chain…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-08 Ali Reza Fotouhi

We consider the problem of how to improve automatic target recognition by fusing the naive sensor-level classification decisions with "intuition," or context, in a mathematically principled way. This is a general approach that is compatible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-06-01 Christopher A. George , Pranab Banerjee , Kendra E. Moore

Meta-analysis is widely used to integrate results from multiple experiments to obtain generalized insights. Since meta-analysis datasets are often heteroscedastic due to varying subgroups and temporal heterogeneity arising from experiments…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Kohsuke Kubota , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Keiichi Ochiai , Takahiro Hoshino

A model-based approach is developed for clustering categorical data with no natural ordering. The proposed method exploits the Hamming distance to define a family of probability mass functions to model the data. The elements of this family…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Raffaele Argiento , Edoardo Filippi-Mazzola , Lucia Paci

Combining distributions is an important issue in decision theory and Bayesian inference. Logarithmic pooling is a popular method to aggregate expert opinions by using a set of weights that reflect the reliability of each information source.…

Identifying leading measurement units from a large collection is a common inference task in various domains of large-scale inference. Testing approaches, which measure evidence against a null hypothesis rather than effect magnitude, tend to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Nicholas C. Henderson , Michael A. Newton

In ecology, the description of species composition and biodiversity calls for statistical methods that involve estimating features of interest in unobserved samples based on an observed one. In the last decade, the Bayesian nonparametrics…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Alessandro Colombi , Raffaele Argiento , Federico Camerlenghi , Lucia Paci

Surveys often ask respondents to report nonnegative counts, but respondents may misremember or round to a nearby multiple of 5 or 10. This phenomenon is called heaping, and the error inherent in heaped self-reported numbers can bias…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-15 Forrest W. Crawford , Robert E. Weiss , Marc A. Suchard

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-05-04 M. G. B. Blum , O. Francois

Well-calibrated probabilistic regression models are a crucial learning component in robotics applications as datasets grow rapidly and tasks become more complex. Unfortunately, classical regression models are usually either probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Hany Abdulsamad , Peter Nickl , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

The object of this paper is to develop a statistical approach to criminal linkage analysis that discovers and groups crime events that share a common offender and prioritizes suspects for further investigation. Bayes factors are used to…

Applications · Statistics 2014-10-10 Michael D. Porter