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The widespread popularity of replica exchange and expanded ensemble algorithms for simulating complex molecular systems in chemistry and biophysics has generated much interest in enhancing phase space mixing of these protocols, thus…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-12-06 John D. Chodera , Michael R. Shirts

Bayesian analysis is widely used in science and engineering for real-time forecasting, decision making, and to help unravel the processes that explain the observed data. These data are some deterministic and/or stochastic transformations of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Jiangjiang Zhang , Jasper A. Vrugt , Xiaoqing Shi , Guang Lin , Lingzao Zeng , Laosheng Wu

Statistical signal processing applications usually require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. These estimates are typically obtained either by solving a multi-variate optimization problem, as in the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-27 D. Luengo , L. Martino , M. Bugallo , V. Elvira , S. Särkkä

The literature in social network analysis has largely focused on methods and models which require complete network data; however there exist many networks which can only be studied via sampling methods due to the scale or complexity of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-25 Haema Nilakanta , Zack W. Almquist , Galin L. Jones

We consider the popular tree-based search strategy within the framework of reinforcement learning, the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), in the context of finite-horizon Markov decision process. We propose a dynamic sampling tree policy that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Gongbo Zhang , Yijie Peng , Yilong Xu

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

We present an implementation of Quantum Computing for a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with an application to cosmological functions, to derive posterior distributions from cosmological probes. The algorithm proposes new steps in the…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms play an important role in statistical inference problems dealing with intractable probability distributions. Recently, many MCMC algorithms such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Riemannian…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-19 Cheng Zhang , Babak Shahbaba , Hongkai Zhao

We investigate the properties of the Hybrid Monte-Carlo algorithm (HMC) in high dimensions. HMC develops a Markov chain reversible w.r.t. a given target distribution $\Pi$ by using separable Hamiltonian dynamics with potential $-\log\Pi$.…

Due to its constrained support, the Dirichlet distribution is uniquely suited to many applications. The constraints that make it powerful, however, can also hinder practical implementations, particularly those utilizing Markov Chain Monte…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-02 M. J. Betancourt

We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-31 Elaine Angelino , Eddie Kohler , Amos Waterland , Margo Seltzer , Ryan P. Adams

We introduce a new framework for efficient sampling from complex probability distributions, using a combination of optimal transport maps and the Metropolis-Hastings rule. The core idea is to use continuous transportation to transform…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-11 Matthew Parno , Youssef Marzouk

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current state-of-the-art methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC techniques and its variants, such…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-15 Alexander Y. Shestopaloff , Arnaud Doucet

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-05 Synge Todo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a sampling-based method for estimating features of probability distributions. MCMC methods produce a serially correlated, yet representative, sample from the desired distribution. As such it can be…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-10 Dootika Vats , Nathan Robertson , James M Flegal , Galin L Jones

Performing reliable Bayesian inference on a big data scale is becoming a keystone in the modern era of machine learning. A workhorse class of methods to achieve this task are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and their design to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-21 Vincent Plassier , Maxime Vono , Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-09 Lewis J. Rendell , Adam M. Johansen , Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

We develop a new Markov chain on graph partitions that makes relatively global moves yet is computationally feasible to be used as the proposal in the Metropolis-Hastings method. Our resulting algorithm can be made reversible and able to…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Eric Autrey , Daniel Carter , Gregory Herschlag , Zach Hunter , Jonathan C. Mattingly

A novel method called mixed variable system Monte Carlo tree search (MVSMCTS) formulation is presented for optimization problems considering various types of variables with single and mixed continuous-discrete system. This method utilizes a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-31 Fu-Yao Ko , Katsuyuki Suzuki , Kazuo Yonekura

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a workhorse of probabilistic modeling and inference, but are difficult to debug, and are prone to silent failure if implemented naively. We outline several strategies for testing the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2014-12-18 Roger B. Grosse , David K. Duvenaud