Related papers: A Conversation with James Hannan
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
Traditionally, weather predictions are performed with the help of large complex models of physics, which utilize different atmospheric conditions over a long period of time. These conditions are often unstable because of perturbations of…
We present a novel and detailed dataset on origin-destination annual migration flows and stocks between 230 countries and regions, spanning the period from 1990 to the present. Our flow estimates are further disaggregated by country of…
Influenza is an infectious disease with the potential to become a pandemic, and hence, forecasting its prevalence is an important undertaking for planning an effective response. Research has found that web search activity can be used to…
A researcher observes a finite sequence of choices made by multiple agents in a binary-state environment. Agents maximize expected utilities that depend on their chosen alternative and the unknown underlying state. Agents learn about the…
We present an extended version of the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game in which agents with limited memory receive recommendations about the unknown opponent to decide whether to play with. Since agents can receive more than one…
Several variations of hat guessing games have been popularly discussed in recreational mathematics. In a typical hat guessing game, after initially coordinating a strategy, each of $n$ players is assigned a hat from a given color set.…
We designed a grid world task to study human planning and re-planning behavior in an unknown stochastic environment. In our grid world, participants were asked to travel from a random starting point to a random goal position while…
Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical…
Jerzy Neyman's life history and some of his contributions to applied statistics are reviewed. In a 1960 article he wrote: ``Currently in the period of dynamic indeterminism in science, there is hardly a serious piece of research which, if…
Regional rainfall forecasting is an important issue in hydrology and meteorology. This paper aims to design an integrated tool by applying various machine learning algorithms, especially the state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms…
This volume is our tribute to David A. Freedman, whom we regard as one of the great statisticians of our time. He received his B.Sc. degree from McGill University and his Ph.D. from Princeton, and joined the Department of Statistics of the…
Machine learning methods have been shown to be effective for weather forecasting, based on the speed and accuracy compared to traditional numerical models. While early efforts primarily concentrated on deterministic predictions, the field…
Weather forecasting has long posed a significant challenge for humanity. While recent AI-based models have surpassed traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in global forecasting tasks, overfitting remains a critical issue…
Nancy Flournoy was born in Long Beach, California, on May 4, 1947. After graduating from Polytechnic School in Pasadena in 1965, she earned a B.S. (1969) and M.S. (1971) in biostatistics from UCLA. Between her bachelors and masters degrees,…
Generative models are trained with the simple objective of imitating the conditional probability distribution induced by the data they are trained on. Therefore, when trained on data generated by humans, we may not expect the artificial…
Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce DRUM, a diffusion-based probabilistic deep learning approach that advances…
Advancements in sensing and computing technologies, the development of human and computer interaction frameworks, big data storage capabilities, and the emergence of cloud storage and could computing have resulted in an abundance of data in…
In recent years, a study by environmental organizations in the world and Vietnam shows that weather change is quite complex. global warming has become a serious problem in the modern world, which is a concern for scientists. last century,…
The two of us have shared a fascination with James Victor Uspensky's 1937 textbook $Introduction \, to \, Mathematical \, Probability$ ever since our graduate student days: it contains many interesting results not found in other books on…