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A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-14 Shan Ba , V. Roshan Joseph

The rapidly increasing complexity of (mainly wireless) ad-hoc networks stresses the need of reliable distributed estimation of several variables of interest. The widely used centralized approach, in which the network nodes communicate their…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-03-20 K. Dedecius , V. Sečkárová

Mathematical models implemented on a computer have become the driving force behind the acceleration of the cycle of scientific processes. This is because computer models are typically much faster and economical to run than physical…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-05 Vojtech Kejzlar , Mookyong Son , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

We derive a novel, provably robust, and closed-form Bayesian update rule for online filtering in state-space models in the presence of outliers and misspecified measurement models. Our method combines generalised Bayesian inference with…

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Rafael Oliveira , Dino Sejdinovic , David Howard , Edwin V. Bonilla

This paper is an attempt to bridge the conceptual gaps between researchers working on the two widely used approaches based on positive definite kernels: Bayesian learning or inference using Gaussian processes on the one side, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-10 Motonobu Kanagawa , Philipp Hennig , Dino Sejdinovic , Bharath K Sriperumbudur

Gaussian process regression is a powerful method for predicting states based on given data. It has been successfully applied for probabilistic predictions of structural systems to quantify, for example, the crack growth in mechanical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-20 Simon Pfingstl , Markus Zimmermann

We develop a fully Bayesian hierarchical model for trend filtering, itself a new development in nonparametric, univariate regression. The framework more broadly applies to the generalized lasso, but focus is on Bayesian trend filtering. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-29 Edward A. Roualdes

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Edwin V. Bonilla

Bayesian estimation is a vital tool in robotics as it allows systems to update the robot state belief using incomplete information from noisy sensors. To render the state estimation problem tractable, many systems assume that the motion and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Miguel Saavedra-Ruiz , Steven A. Parkison , Ria Arora , James Richard Forbes , Liam Paull

We formulate approximate Bayesian inference in non-conjugate temporal and spatio-temporal Gaussian process models as a simple parameter update rule applied during Kalman smoothing. This viewpoint encompasses most inference schemes,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 William J. Wilkinson , Paul E. Chang , Michael Riis Andersen , Arno Solin

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

The particle filter is a powerful framework for estimating hidden states in dynamic systems where uncertainty, noise, and nonlinearity dominate. This mini-book offers a clear and structured introduction to the core ideas behind particle…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-04 Sahil Rajesh Dhayalkar

Sparsity constraints on the control inputs of a linear dynamical system naturally arise in several practical applications such as networked control, computer vision, seismic signal processing, and cyber-physical systems. In this work, we…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-11 Rupam Kalyan Chakraborty , Geethu Joseph , Chandra R. Murthy

Bayesian optimization is a sequential method for minimizing objective functions that are expensive to evaluate and about which few assumptions can be made. By using all gathered data to train a Gaussian process model for the function and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jesse Schneider , William J. Welch

Accurate assessment of systematic uncertainties is an increasingly vital task in physics studies, where large, high-dimensional datasets, like those collected at the Large Hadron Collider, hold the key to new discoveries. Common approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Alexis Romero , Kyle Cranmer , Daniel Whiteson

This paper is centered around the approximation of dynamical systems by means of Gaussian processes. To this end, trajectories of such systems must be collected to be used as training data. The measurements of these trajectories are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-02 Tobias M. Wolff , Victor G. Lopez , Matthias A. Müller

We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric method to learn translation-invariant relationships on non-Euclidean domains. The resulting graph convolutional Gaussian processes can be applied to problems in machine learning for which the input…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Ian Walker , Ben Glocker

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-12 Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Giulio Bottegal , Håkan Hjalmarsson