Related papers: Semi-parametric dynamic time series modelling with…
The concept of Label Distribution Learning (LDL) is a technique to stabilize classification and regression problems with ambiguous and/or imbalanced labels. A prototypical use-case of LDL is human age estimation based on profile images.…
Time-series data in population health and epidemiology often involve non-Gaussian responses. In this note, we propose a semiparametric generalized linear models framework for time-series data that does not require specification of a working…
Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…
A method for selecting a graphical model for $p$-vector-valued stationary Gaussian time series was recently proposed by Matsuda and uses the Kullback-Leibler divergence measure to define a test statistic. This statistic was used in a…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
The arrow of time can be quantified through the Kullback-Leibler divergence ($D_{KL}$) between the distributions of forward and reverse trajectories in a system. Many approaches to estimate this rely on specific models, but the use of…
The capability of a novel Kullback-Leibler divergence method is examined herein within the Kalman filter framework to select the input-parameter-state estimation execution with the most plausible results. This identification suffers from…
In a first part, we present a mathematical analysis of a general methodology of a probabilistic learning inference that allows for estimating a posterior probability model for a stochastic boundary value problem from a prior probability…
We establish a time-stepping learning algorithm and apply it to predict the solution of the partial differential equation of motion in micromagnetism as a dynamical system depending on the external field as parameter. The data-driven…
The computational properties of neural systems are often thought to be implemented in terms of their network dynamics. Hence, recovering the system dynamics from experimentally observed neuronal time series, like multiple single-unit (MSU)…
Diffusion models have achieved great success in generating high-dimensional samples across various applications. While the theoretical guarantees for continuous-state diffusion models have been extensively studied, the convergence analysis…
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…
In this paper, we develop a complete methodology for detecting time-varying/non time-varying parameters in ARCH processes. For this purpose, we estimate and test various semiparametric versions of the time-varying ARCH model (tv-ARCH) which…
This work presents a novel framework for time series analysis using entropic measures based on the kernel density estimate (KDE) of the time series' Takens' embeddings. Using this framework we introduce two distinct analytical tools: (1) a…
Hidden semi-Markov models generalise hidden Markov models by explicitly modelling the time spent in a given state, the so-called dwell time, using some distribution defined on the natural numbers. While the (shifted) Poisson and negative…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
Consider the nonparametric logistic regression problem. In the logistic regression, we usually consider the maximum likelihood estimator, and the excess risk is the expectation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and…
Recent literature has shown how linear time-invariant (LTI) systems can be represented by trajectories features, that is relying on a single input-output (IO) data dictionary to span all possible system trajectories, as long as the input is…
This paper is devoted to the offline multiple changes detection for long-range dependence processes. The observations are supposed to satisfy a semi-parametric long-range dependence assumption with distinct memory parameters on each stage.…
We describe an approach for identifying groups of dynamically similar locations in spatial time-series data based on a simple Markov transition model. We give maximum-likelihood, empirical Bayes, and fully Bayesian formulations of the…