Related papers: Leverage Bubble
Price-mediated contagion occurs when a positive feedback loop develops following a drop in asset prices which forces banks and other financial institutions to sell their holdings. Prior studies of such events fix the level of market…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…
We propose a new volatility model based on two stylized facts of the volatility in the stock market: clustering and leverage effect. We calibrate our model parameters, in the leading order, with 77 years Dow Jones Industrial Average data.…
We study and generalize in various ways the model of rational expectation (RE) bubbles introduced by Blanchard and Watson in the economic literature. First, bubbles are argued to be the equivalent of Goldstone modes of the fundamental…
We compare two models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Our main results show that the divergence…
Trust lies at the crux of most economic transactions, with credit markets being a notable example. Drawing on insights from the literature on coordination games and network growth, we develop a simple model to clarify how trust breaks down…
This paper studies the impact of funding market frictions on bond prices and market-wide liquidity. Using proprietary transaction-level data on all gilt-backed repo and reverse-repo trades, we demonstrate how the market power of individual…
In this paper, we describe a novel agent-based approach for modelling the transaction cost of buying or selling an asset in financial markets, e.g., to liquidate a large position as a result of a margin call to meet financial obligations.…
Liberalized electricity markets often include resource adequacy mechanisms that require consumers to contract with generation resources well in advance of real-time operations. While administratively defined mechanisms have most commonly…
Multifractal processes are a relatively new tool of stock market analysis. Their power lies in the ability to take multiple orders of autocorrelations into account explicitly. In the first part of the paper we discuss the framework of the…
In this study, we perform a novel analysis of the 2015 financial bubble in the Chinese stock market by calibrating the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to two important Chinese stock indices, SSEC and SZSC, from early 2014…
The success of today's large language models (LLMs) depends on the observation that larger models perform better. However, the origin of this neural scaling law, that loss decreases as a power law with model size, remains unclear. We…
The growing integration of renewable energy sources necessitates adequate reserve capacity to maintain power balance. However, in market clearing, power companies with flexible resources may submit strategic bids to maximize profits,…
Short sales are regarded as negative purchases in textbook asset pricing theory. In reality, however, the symmetry between purchases and short sales is broken by a variety of costs and risks peculiar to the latter. We formulate an optimal…
This paper provides the first causal evidence that credit supply expansion caused the 1999-2010 U.S. business cycle mainly through the channel of household leverage (debt-to-income ratio). Specifically, induced by net export growth, credit…
This paper explores how Large Language Models (LLMs) behave in a classic experimental finance paradigm widely known for eliciting bubbles and crashes in human participants. We adapt an established trading design, where traders buy and sell…
What causes house prices to rise and fall? Economists identify household access to credit as a crucial factor. "Loan-to-Value" and "Debt-to-GDP" ratios are the standard measures for credit access. However, these measures fail to explain the…
We propose a non linear Langevin equation as a model for stock market fluctuations and crashes. This equation is based on an identification of the different processes influencing the demand and supply, and their mathematical transcription.…
The dynamics of a stock market with heterogeneous agents is discussed in the framework of a recently proposed spin model for the emergence of bubbles and crashes. We relate the log returns of stock prices to magnetization in the model and…
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…