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Cryptocurrency markets have many of the characteristics of 20th century commodities markets, making them an attractive candidate for trend following strategies. We present a decade of evidence from the infancy of bitcoin, showcasing the…
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…
We propose a new method of measuring the third and fourth moments of return distribution based on quadratic variation method when the return process is assumed to have zero drift. The realized third and fourth moments variations computed…
The scaling properties of oil price fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within…
Statistical description of stochastic dynamics in highly unstable potentials is strongly affected by properties of divergent trajectories, that quickly leave meta-stable regions of the potential landscape and never return. Using ideas from…
We analyze daily prices of 29 commodities and 2449 stocks, each over a period of $\approx 15$ years. We find that the price fluctuations for commodities have a significantly broader multifractal spectrum than for stocks. We also propose…
We examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilized in risk- and portfolio management. We use daily pricing…
We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties both of a single time series and of an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the $n$ stocks traded in the New York Stock…
We study the tick dynamical behavior of the bond futures in Korean Futures Exchange(KOFEX) market. Since the survival probability in the continuous-time random walk theory is applied to the bond futures transaction, the form of the decay…
This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather…
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price returns of…
We analyzed multifractal properties of 5-minute stock returns from a period of over two years for 100 highly capitalized American companies. The two sources: fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, vitally…
Using 1-min returns of Bitcoin prices, we investigate statistical properties and multifractality of a Bitcoin time series. We find that the 1-min return distribution is fat-tailed, and kurtosis largely deviates from the Gaussian…
We study a stochastic multiplicative system composed of finite asynchronous elements to describe the wealth evolution in financial markets. We find that the wealth fluctuations or returns of this system can be described by a walk with…
A new stochastic theory of a foreign exchange markets dynamics is developed. As a result we have the new probability distribution which well describes statistical and scaling dependencies ''experimentally'' observed in foreign exchange…
The financial markets are understood as complex dynamical systems whose dynamics is analysed mostly using nonstationary and brief data sets that usually come from stock markets. For such data sets, a reliable method of analysis is based on…
Financial time series have been investigated to follow fat-tailed distributions. Further, an empirical probability distribution sometimes shows cut-off shapes on its tails. To describe this stylized fact, we incorporate the cut-off effect…
We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…
This paper investigates the dynamics of risk transmission in cryptocurrency markets and proposes a novel framework for volatility forecasting. The framework uncovers two key empirical facts: the asymmetric amplification of volatility…
In the theory of financial markets, a stylized fact is a qualitative summary of a pattern in financial market data that is observed across multiple assets, asset classes and time horizons. In this article, we test a set of eleven stylized…